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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:UCTT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UCTT
Name:
ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:UCTT)
Sector:
- 95800.00K
Industry:
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
CEO:
Mr. James Scholhamer
Total Employees:
7,066
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -205.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC.(UCTT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.24
One Month Price Target:
$28.55
Six Month Price Target :
$30.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$31.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.85
This week:
$22.9
This month :
$17.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.26B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.43M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.13%
-15.38%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.32
$34.21
$17.16
$22.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.45
$23.92
$25.03
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UCTT
Sharpe Ratio:
2.64%
Comparison:
UCTT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -4.73% lower than the industry
& ratio is 15.96% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UCTT
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.60%
Monthly returns:
2.38%
Yearly returns:
28.31%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.06% above industry average
Classification:
UCTT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
UCTT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.18%
Weekly Volatility:
9.34%
Monthly Volatility:
18.67%
Yearly Volatility:
64.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.46% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.46%
Weekly VaR:
-18.91%
Monthly VaR:
-37.82%
How Much Can the price of
UCTT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.18
This translates to price declining to:
$4.24
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UCTT is a 166.90% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 128.65% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 11.47% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UCTT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.96
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.005
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.421
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.259
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.947
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.995
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.558
Beta is 25.81% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is 40.62% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.52%
Sustainable growth rate is -43.56% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.120
Alpha is -22.94% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 766% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UCTT
Equity cost of capital:
0.166
Equity cost of capital is 30.54% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.25%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.36%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.36%
WACC is 16.50% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$49.48
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.39
Annual revenue growth rate is 45.48% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$13.20
EBITDA per share
$5.64
Valuation Analysis Today of
UCTT
P/E Ratio:
16.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
106.68
P/E ratio is -84.77% lower than main peers & is -43.37% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $76.91
UCTT is -63.28% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.57
Price to sales ratio is -91.08% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.39
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -72.62% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
211.51%
Net income growth rate is -69.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
68.18%
Net debt to equity ratio:
30.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.81%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.48
Interest coverage ratio is -51.28% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.43%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.416
Statistical significance of correlation:
UCTT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -31.07% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.079
Kurtosis
2.871
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.274
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UCTT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
81%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.50%
Operating profit margin is -289.27% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
81%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.26%
Effective tax rate is 40.43% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is -2.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is -29.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.69
Current ratio is -38.73% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-8.8
Cash conversion cycle is -115.15% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.58%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
318.2K
Each employee generates -46% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
36.3K
Each employee generates -78% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
17.3K
Each employee generates -84% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 13.6K
Each employee generates -179% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
125.8K
Each employee generates -179% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 65.59%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 177.14% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
UCTT
RIOT BLOCKCHAIN, INC. (XNAS:RIOT)
LIVEPERSON, INC. (XNAS:LPSN)
VERTEX, INC. (XNAS:VERX)
QADB
EVERBRIDGE, INC. (XNAS:EVBG)
NETSCOUT SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:NTCT)
BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:EPAY)
CHICKEN SOUP FOR THE SOUL ENTERTAINMENT INC. (XNAS:CSSEN)
AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ACLS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
2.25B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.79B
456.79M
27.17M
184.29M
238.68M
54.39M
-
265.85M
356.00K
27.03M
77.38M
256.18M
191.00M
122.37M
160.99M
29.40M
122.37M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
17.90M
Differed Income Tax :
1.40M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 124500.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 29100.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 6500.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.40M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 67400.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 28400.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/1/22
2022
Q1
367.00M
-
367.00M
279.30M
440.30M
36.10M
1.12B
336.90M
268.50M
237.60M
-
36.60M
9.30M
888.90M
-
2.01B
288.10M
36.80M
-
-
92.70M
417.60M
599.70M
13.20M
667.70M
-
1.09B
100.00K
365.30M
- 3000.0K
517.20M
April 1, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.06B
879.60M
1.96B
-
636.50M
269.5M
-
-
- 28400.00K
- 2600.00K
-
-
-
-
- 2600.00K
- 1100.00K
- 99500.00K
367.00M
466.50M
- 67400.00K
- 28400.00K
- 95800.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UCTT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.12
$115.82
$131.08
$148.35
$167.90