_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (XNAS:ULTA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ULTA
Name:
ULTA BEAUTY, INC. (XNAS:ULTA)
Sector:
295.50M
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Ms. Mary Dillon
Total Employees:
16,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -257.22% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ULTA BEAUTY, INC.(ULTA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
423.08
One Month Price Target:
$426.37
Six Month Price Target :
$442.83
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$462.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$421.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$425.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$397.06
This week:
$364.9
This month :
$306.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
21.91B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.98%
-21.98%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$543.72
$487.71
$302.44
$358.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$469.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$457.53
$376.52
$388.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ULTA
Sharpe Ratio:
3.71%
Comparison:
ULTA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 29.60% higher than the industry
& ratio is 62.63% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ULTA
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.61%
Monthly returns:
2.44%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -16.11% below industry average
Classification:
ULTA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
ULTA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.05%
Weekly Volatility:
6.83%
Monthly Volatility:
13.66%
Yearly Volatility:
47.31%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.66%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.15%
Weekly VaR:
-13.75%
Monthly VaR:
-27.51%
How Much Can the price of
ULTA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$326.11
This translates to price declining to:
$63.46
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ULTA is a 94.13% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 66.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.47% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ULTA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.39
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.81
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.146
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.834
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.973
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.887
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.461
Beta is -4.94% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is -2.83% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
45.03%
Sustainable growth rate is 35.60% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.166
Alpha is -24.34% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1058% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ULTA
Equity cost of capital:
0.127
Equity cost of capital is -2.14% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-0.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.04%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.04%
WACC is 10.67% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$176.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.75
Annual revenue growth rate is -51.89% below industry average
EPS:
$20.21
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -49.47% lower than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$18.25
-
-
Debt per share
$31.50
EBITDA per share
$32.95
Valuation Analysis Today of
ULTA
P/E Ratio:
19.82
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
844.89
P/E ratio is -97.65% lower than main peers & is -7.85% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $434.72
ULTA is -2.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.4
Price to sales ratio is -41.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.75
Price to free cash flow: 23.19
Price to free cash flow ratio is 0.82% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-65.41%
Net income growth rate is -86.18% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
87.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
50.36%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.26%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -56.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1867.22
Interest coverage ratio is -7639.40% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.14%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.657
Statistical significance of correlation:
ULTA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is 38.19% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.062
Kurtosis
14.769
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.5
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ULTA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
158%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.82%
Operating profit margin is 143.34% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
158%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.89%
Effective tax rate is 5.94% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
58.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is 4042.02% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
21.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is 129.63% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.68
Current ratio is -10.81% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-12.5
Cash conversion cycle is -119.31% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.83%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
547.8K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
102.3K
Each employee generates -58% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
65.9K
Each employee generates -56% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
17.9K
Each employee generates -57% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
153.0K
Each employee generates -57% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ULTA
POOL CORPORATION (XNAS:POOL)
ETSY, INC. (XNAS:ETSY)
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:CZR)
LKQ CORPORATION (XNAS:LKQ)
Trip.com Group Limited (XNAS:TCOM)
OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLPX)
EXPEDIA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:EXPE)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:FWONK)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:FWONA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�33%
Hold�54%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
9.04B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.48B
3.56B
-
503.40M
2.12B
-
4.93M
2.12B
-
- 904.00K
260.70M
1.69B
1.43B
1.09B
1.43B
341.23M
1.09B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
70.60M
Differed Income Tax :
1.12M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.98M
Change in Working Capital :
- 50893.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
69.07M
Other Non-Cash Items:
69.97M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
330.07M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
947.46M
-
947.46M
154.34M
1.35B
108.39M
2.56B
2.45B
10.87M
2.23M
-
-
62.63M
2.52B
-
5.09B
552.84M
263.20M
113.96M
270.09M
436.64M
1.52B
1.61B
40.27M
1.72B
-
3.24B
558.00K
1.03B
-
816.75M
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
7.61B
1.84B
5.09B
-
1.88B
929.1M
-
- 34563.00K
- 34563.00K
-
-
- 399075.00K
-
5.03M
- 394043.00K
- 56.00K
- 98595.00K
947.46M
1.05B
330.07M
- 34563.00K
295.50M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ULTA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$464.89
$5,943.03
$6,497.88
$7,104.53
$7,767.81