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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ugi Corporation (XNYS:UGI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UGI
Name:
UGI CORPORATION (XNYS:UGI)
Sector:
- 780000.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Gas
CEO:
Mr. John Walsh
Total Employees:
5,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -92.39% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UGI CORPORATION(UGI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED GAS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.04
One Month Price Target:
$39.26
Six Month Price Target :
$40.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.69
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.2
This week:
$34.93
This month :
$30.81
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
209.38M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.13%
-17.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.58
$43.69
$30.50
$34.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.59
$35.65
$36.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UGI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.11%
Comparison:
UGI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -94.61% lower than the industry
& is -95.07% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UGI
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.23%
Yearly returns:
20.89%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -86.86% below industry average
Classification:
UGI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
UGI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.30%
Weekly Volatility:
5.14%
Monthly Volatility:
10.29%
Yearly Volatility:
35.64%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.57%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.02% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.71%
Weekly VaR:
-10.54%
Monthly VaR:
-21.08%
How Much Can the price of
UGI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-73.01%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.81
This translates to price declining to:
$10.54
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UGI is a 48.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 27.44% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UGI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.01
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.657
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.929
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.539
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.596
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.706
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.642
Beta is 57.35% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.86
Beta is 17.44% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.04%
Sustainable growth rate is 101.99% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.073
Alpha is -161.81% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -466% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UGI
Equity cost of capital:
0.101
Equity cost of capital is 11.36% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.38%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.45%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.52%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.52%
WACC is 16.60% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$43.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.53
Annual revenue growth rate is -45.07% below industry average
EPS:
$6.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
51.33%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 117.73% higher than the Utilities�Regulated Gas industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -46.67%
Equity growth rate per share is -2036.53% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$30.64
EBITDA per share
$13.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
UGI
P/E Ratio:
6.26
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.59
P/E ratio is -66.32% lower than main peers & is -52.33% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $91.66
UGI is -57.41% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.46
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.61
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.9
Price to sales ratio is -73.57% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.53
-
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
69.79%
Net income growth rate is -123.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.77%
Dividend yeild: 3.57%
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.36
Previous Dividend: $1.40
Expected next dividend best case: $0.37
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.34
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.04%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.36
2021-12-14--$0.35
2021-06-14--$0.35
2022-03-14--$0.35
2021-09-14--$0.35
2021-03-12--$0.33
Dividend growth rate is -104.93% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
119.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
126.83%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
40.38%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -27.58% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.76
Interest coverage ratio is 59.50% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.55%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.629
Statistical significance of correlation:
UGI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is 14.10% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.045
Kurtosis
10.025
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.909
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UGI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
244%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.04%
Operating profit margin is 36.35% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
244%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.26%
Effective tax rate is 16.66% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is 231.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is 236.89% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.33
Current ratio is 42.11% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.3
Cash conversion cycle is -104.18% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates -5% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
478.6K
Each employee generates -7% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
260.5K
Each employee generates 7% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 134.5K
Each employee generates 49% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.3M
Each employee generates 49% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UGI
BROOKFIELD RENEWABLE PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:BEP)
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (XNYS:AQN)
CMS-PB
HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC. (OTCM:HNPIY)
BRAZILIAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY (XNYS:EBR)
EBR-B
PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNYS:PNW)
NISOURCE INC. (XNYS:NI)
VISTRA CORP. (XNYS:VST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.07B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.10B
4.98B
-
1.52B
2.08B
-
380.00M
2.46B
-
317.00M
381.00M
2.78B
1.09B
1.51B
2.08B
567.00M
1.51B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
129.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 82000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 664000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 22000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
120.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 594000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
334.00M
-
334.00M
1.68B
548.00M
865.00M
3.43B
7.60B
3.75B
565.00M
-
-
1.46B
13.37B
-
16.80B
973.00M
702.00M
-
-
906.00M
2.58B
6.42B
1.38B
8.86B
-
11.44B
1.40B
3.91B
- 156000.0K
- 19000.00K
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
6.55B
5.35B
16.79B
-
7.12B
6.8B
-
- 154000.00K
- 154000.00K
- 524000.00K
8.00M
-
- 72000.00K
822.00M
234.00M
- 5000.00K
- 519000.00K
358.00M
877.00M
- 594000.00K
- 186000.00K
- 780000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UGI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.90
$97.89
$104.54
$111.63
$119.21