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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ufp Technologies, Inc. (XNAS:UFPT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UFPT
Name:
UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPT)
Sector:
- 5550.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. R. Jeffrey Bailly
Total Employees:
1,828
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 485.13% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(UFPT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
92.26
One Month Price Target:
$92.62
Six Month Price Target :
$94.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$96.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$91.97
Price Upper limit ($) :
$92.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$87.4
This week:
$81.4
This month :
$70.53
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
691.43M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
7.57M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.63%
-16.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$114.78
$104.26
$69.74
$80.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$100.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$98.59
$83.66
$85.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UFPT
Sharpe Ratio:
4.81%
Comparison:
UFPT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 217.79% higher than the industry
& ratio is 111.18% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UFPT
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.68%
Monthly returns:
2.71%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 111.67% above industry average
Classification:
UFPT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
UFPT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.63%
Weekly Volatility:
5.88%
Monthly Volatility:
11.76%
Yearly Volatility:
40.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.27%
Weekly VaR:
-11.78%
Monthly VaR:
-23.55%
How Much Can the price of
UFPT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-81.58%
This translates to price declining to:
$74.48
This translates to price declining to:
$16.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UFPT is a 66.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 42.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.23% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UFPT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.553
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.783
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.514
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.371
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.6
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.47
Beta is -52.08% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -33.84% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.17%
Sustainable growth rate is -29.62% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.245
Alpha is 399.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1562% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UFPT
Equity cost of capital:
0.080
Equity cost of capital is -23.63% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.82%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.42%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.33%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.33%
WACC is -25.46% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$30.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.51
Annual revenue growth rate is -98.30% below industry average
EPS:
$2.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-7.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -166.70% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.19
-
-
Debt per share
$12.95
EBITDA per share
$4.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
UFPT
P/E Ratio:
33.83
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.99
P/E ratio is 182.07% higher than main peers & is -86.11% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $530.93
UFPT is -82.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.05
Price to sales ratio is -67.25% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.51
Price to free cash flow: 473.83
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
8.97%
Net income growth rate is -90.76% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
49.22%
Net debt to equity ratio:
50.43%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.97%
Net debt to assets ratio:
27.63%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -30.39% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
73.58
Interest coverage ratio is 451.58% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3725.71%
Annual debt growth is 1440% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.56%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.328
Statistical significance of correlation:
UFPT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is -29.93% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.051
Kurtosis
5.709
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.123
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UFPT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
97%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.73%
Operating profit margin is -156.99% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
97%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.62%
Effective tax rate is -55.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.33%
Return on equity (ROE) is -184.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.56%
Return on assets (ROA) is -235.36% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.54
Current ratio is -60.78% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
56.7
Cash conversion cycle is 1.68% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.17%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
125.3K
Each employee generates -67% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
17.4K
Each employee generates 178% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
9.1K
Each employee generates -131% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.0K
Each employee generates -79% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
144.9K
Each employee generates -79% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UFPT
DEL TACO RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNAS:TACO)
ELECTRAMECCANICA VEHICLES CORP. (XNAS:SOLO)
VOXX INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:VOXX)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TA)
KANDI TECHNOLOGIES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:KNDI)
YUNJI INC. (XNAS:YJ)
AMERICAN OUTDOOR BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:AOUT)
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CVGI)
SEARS HOLDINGS CORPORATION (OTCM:SHLDQ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
228.96M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
173.32M
55.64M
-
-
32.18M
-
-
32.18M
61.00K
432.00K
9.36M
31.79M
22.28M
16.58M
22.00M
5.42M
16.58M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.02M
Differed Income Tax :
- 440.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
692.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 11331.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
497.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 11.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 3216.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2334.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 20653.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.65M
-
3.65M
46.18M
43.30M
5.31M
98.44M
72.18M
115.57M
71.57M
-
-
5.59M
264.91M
-
363.35M
15.67M
6.05M
2.11M
5.04M
12.06M
38.82M
97.99M
24.02M
125.44M
-
164.27M
76.00K
165.67M
381.0K
32.96M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
205.51M
199.08M
363.35M
-
104.04M
100.4M
-
12.00K
- 22975.00K
- 8016.00K
-
-
-
26.70M
18.69M
41.00K
- 7465.00K
3.65M
11.12M
- 3216.00K
- 2334.00K
- 5550.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UFPT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$83.44
$87.39
$91.53
$95.86
$100.40