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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ufp Industries, Inc. (XNAS:UFPI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UFPI
Name:
UFP INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPI)
Sector:
- 277103.00K
Industry:
Lumber & Wood Production
CEO:
Mr. Matthew Missad
Total Employees:
15,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UFP INDUSTRIES, INC.(UFPI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
77.11
One Month Price Target:
$77.78
Six Month Price Target :
$81.14
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$85.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$76.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$77.54
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$72.88
This week:
$67.65
This month :
$58.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
61.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.73%
-16.31%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$96.72
$87.63
$57.50
$66.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$84.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$82.73
$69.52
$71.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UFPI
Sharpe Ratio:
3.39%
Comparison:
UFPI, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.00% lower than the industry
& ratio is 48.92% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UFPI
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.51%
Monthly returns:
2.02%
Yearly returns:
24.28%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.00% below industry average
Classification:
UFPI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.69
Statistical test of Returns:
UFPI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.72%
Weekly Volatility:
6.08%
Monthly Volatility:
12.16%
Yearly Volatility:
42.13%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.73%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.48%
Weekly VaR:
-12.26%
Monthly VaR:
-24.53%
How Much Can the price of
UFPI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-84.96%
This translates to price declining to:
$61.28
This translates to price declining to:
$11.60
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UFPI is a 73.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 48.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UFPI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.56
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.102
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.559
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.343
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.906
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.921
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.046
Beta is 48.79% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.556
Beta is 0.00% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
25.77%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.105
Alpha is 0.00% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 666% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UFPI
Equity cost of capital:
0.138
Equity cost of capital is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.92%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.39%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.89%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.89%
WACC is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$150.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.14
FALSE
EPS:
$9.90
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
43.45%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 0.00% lower than the Lumber & Wood Production industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.12
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 82.07%
Equity growth rate per share is 0.00% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$7.40
EBITDA per share
$15.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
UFPI
P/E Ratio:
7.42
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
82
P/E ratio is -90.95% lower than main peers & is -31.49% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $107.27
UFPI is -28.11% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $63.37
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.73
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.51
Price to sales ratio is -17.98% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.14
Price to free cash flow: 15.06
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
260.25%
Net income growth rate is 0.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.02%
Dividend yeild: 0.94%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $0.73
Expected next dividend best case: $0.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.25
2021-11-30--$0.20
2021-05-28--$0.15
2022-02-28--$0.20
2021-08-31--$0.15
2021-02-26--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -83.67% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
20.94%
Net debt to equity ratio:
23.55%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.41%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.96%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
67.06
Interest coverage ratio is 45.45% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-13.47%
Annual debt growth is 0% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 23.70%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.69
Statistical significance of correlation:
UFPI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.69
Stock price is 0.00% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.69
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.026
Kurtosis
5.164
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.226
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UFPI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
69%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.24%
Operating profit margin is 60.67% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
69%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.06%
Effective tax rate is -1.12% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2.51% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.93%
Return on assets (ROA) is 10.78% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.74
Current ratio is -5.23% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
27.1
Cash conversion cycle is 67.96% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
620.0K
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
62.7K
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
41.5K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 18.5K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
80.1K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UFPI
BALCHEM CORPORATION (XNAS:BCPC)
ZYMERGEN INC. (XNAS:ZY)
SSR Mining Inc. (XNAS:SSRM)
AMYRIS, INC. (XNAS:AMRS)
WD-40 COMPANY (XNAS:WDFC)
METHANEX CORPORATION (XNAS:MEOH)
ROYAL GOLD, INC. (XNAS:RGLD)
INNOSPEC INC. (XNAS:IOSP)
KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION (XNAS:KALU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.30B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.70B
1.60B
-
-
752.31M
-
- 12621.00K
739.68M
1.69M
14.04M
101.92M
941.19M
859.09M
622.03M
844.45M
203.21M
622.03M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
26.51M
Differed Income Tax :
101.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.93M
Change in Working Capital :
- 473518.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 352928.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.81M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 245031.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 32072.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 24571.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 6030.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
73.78M
35.47M
109.25M
1.10B
1.23B
37.46M
2.47B
700.79M
317.63M
127.60M
-
3.59M
51.93M
1.20B
-
3.67B
425.96M
130.62M
54.68M
-
346.63M
903.20M
455.98M
35.33M
552.59M
-
1.46B
62.73M
1.85B
- 3170.0K
266.54M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
8.44B
2.18B
3.63B
-
586.61M
512.8M
4.73M
- 1788.00K
- 59736.00K
- 141637.00K
663.00K
- 501.00K
- 12541.00K
240.35M
86.33M
1.73M
- 216711.00K
74.51M
291.22M
- 245031.00K
- 32072.00K
- 277103.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UFPI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$85.60
$409.50
$452.33
$499.64
$551.90