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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Udr, Inc. (XNYS:UDR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UDR
Name:
UDR, INC. (XNYS:UDR)
Sector:
116.73M
Industry:
REIT�Residential
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Toomey
Total Employees:
1,219
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 348.41% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UDR, INC.(UDR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
45.32
One Month Price Target:
$45.51
Six Month Price Target :
$46.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.16
Price Upper limit ($) :
$45.5
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.24
This week:
$40.66
This month :
$36.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
14.97B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
324.92M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.81%
-17.55%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$54.99
$50.58
$35.65
$40.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$49.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.19
$41.49
$42.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UDR
Sharpe Ratio:
0.53%
Comparison:
UDR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -66.78% lower than the industry
& is -76.88% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UDR
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.41%
Yearly returns:
13.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -61.95% below industry average
Classification:
UDR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.88
Statistical test of Returns:
UDR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.25%
Weekly Volatility:
5.03%
Monthly Volatility:
10.06%
Yearly Volatility:
34.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.20%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.60%
Weekly VaR:
-10.28%
Monthly VaR:
-20.57%
How Much Can the price of
UDR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-71.25%
This translates to price declining to:
$37.18
This translates to price declining to:
$13.03
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UDR is a 45.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.36% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.27% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UDR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.74
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.73
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.032
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.29
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.62
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.737
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.923
Beta is -19.35% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.785
Beta is -5.20% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.033
Alpha is -172.49% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -209% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UDR
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -3.28% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.04%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.04%
WACC is -16.86% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.14
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.16
Annual revenue growth rate is 67.45% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.50
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-8.67%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -271.26% lower than the REIT�Residential industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.63
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 15.23%
Equity growth rate per share is -468.81% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$16.48
EBITDA per share
$2.92
Valuation Analysis Today of
UDR
P/E Ratio:
94.4
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
180.4
P/E ratio is -47.67% lower than main peers & is 42.35% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.16
UDR is 36.68% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $39.18
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.64
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.94
Price to sales ratio is -6.73% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.16
Price to free cash flow: 27.86
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-32.75%
Net income growth rate is -96.96% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 72.50%
Dividend yeild: 3.24%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $1.47
Expected next dividend best case: $0.39
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.37
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.36
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.06%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 17/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-08--$0.38
2021-10-07--$0.36
2021-04-08--$0.36
2022-01-07--$0.36
2021-07-09--$0.36
2021-01-08--$0.36
Dividend growth rate is -103.91% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
157.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
167.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.10%
Net debt to assets ratio:
53.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -1.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.47
Interest coverage ratio is 147.40% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
8.37%
Annual debt growth is -288% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.655
Statistical significance of correlation:
UDR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.63
Stock price is 3.92% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.63
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.059
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.077
Kurtosis
9.898
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.19
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UDR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
272%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.88%
Operating profit margin is -41.20% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
272%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.67%
Effective tax rate is -49.77% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.73%
Return on equity (ROE) is -44.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.50%
Return on assets (ROA) is -57.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
0.82
Current ratio is -91.25% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-28.5
Cash conversion cycle is -300.16% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.97%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 37% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
777.8K
Each employee generates 33% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
131.8K
Each employee generates -40% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
95.8K
Each employee generates 29% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
8.3M
Each employee generates 29% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
UDR
VICI PROPERTIES INC. (XNYS:VICI)
CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST (XNYS:CPT)
HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:PEAK)
KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KIM)
W.P. CAREY INC. (XNYS:WPC)
EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:ELS)
VENTAS, INC. (XNYS:VTR)
VNO-PM
VNO-PL
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�63%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.35B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
431.02M
915.57M
-
100.83M
100.83M
-
661.77M
762.60M
13.03M
146.47M
639.84M
948.09M
240.79M
160.62M
173.49M
1.16M
160.62M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
166.70M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.37M
Change in Working Capital :
- 40013.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
13.36M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
161.02M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 54233.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
895.00K
-
895.00K
26.58M
457.16M
26.03M
510.66M
196.58M
-
-
669.34M
-
9.31B
10.17B
-
10.68B
117.24M
317.19M
32.91M
-
188.98M
623.41M
5.35B
53.02M
5.41B
-
6.03B
3.18M
- 3549788.00K
2.8M
6.89B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.19B
3.39B
9.42B
-
5.67B
5.7B
-
- 32578.00K
- 86811.00K
- 280.00K
-
- 99.00K
- 116455.00K
41.13M
- 75700.00K
-
- 1491.00K
26.93M
28.42M
161.02M
- 44292.00K
116.73M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UDR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$61.12
$64.17
$67.39
$70.76
$74.30