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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Uber Technologies, Inc. (XNYS:UBER) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
UBER
Name:
UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:UBER)
Sector:
- 47000.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Dara Khosrowshahi
Total Employees:
29,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -113.56% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(UBER) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.05
One Month Price Target:
$29.25
Six Month Price Target :
$30.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$31.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$29.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.7
This week:
$23.79
This month :
$18.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
57.21B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.98B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
38.26%
-21.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.96
$34.95
$18.14
$23.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$33.32
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.25
$24.77
$25.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
UBER
Sharpe Ratio:
1.79%
Comparison:
UBER, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 86.09% higher than the industry
& is -21.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
UBER
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.60%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 93.74% above industry average
Classification:
UBER, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
UBER has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.98%
Weekly Volatility:
8.90%
Monthly Volatility:
17.79%
Yearly Volatility:
61.64%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.30%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -92.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.09%
Weekly VaR:
-18.09%
Monthly VaR:
-36.19%
How Much Can the price of
UBER
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.02
This translates to price declining to:
$4.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
UBER is a 155.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 118.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
UBER
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.20
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.022
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.445
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.579
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.225
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.842
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.119
Beta is 7.30% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -10.06% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.079
Alpha is -433.54% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 501% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
UBER
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is -7.49% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.48%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.54%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.58%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.58%
WACC is -3.04% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.86
Annual revenue growth rate is -76.09% below industry average
EPS:
-$3.27
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-66.33%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -342.48% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.53
EBITDA per share
-$2.92
Valuation Analysis Today of
UBER
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
107.12
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
UBER is -105.00% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.69
Price to sales ratio is -76.58% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.86
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-141.40%
Net income growth rate is -157.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
122.86%
Net debt to equity ratio:
75.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.63%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -39.15% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-11.64
Interest coverage ratio is -121.92% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.90%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.56%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.513
Statistical significance of correlation:
UBER has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 2.03% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.085
Kurtosis
14.599
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.361
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
UBER
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
184%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-13.04%
Operating profit margin is -31.93% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
184%
Effective Tax Rate:
12.51%
Effective tax rate is -52.56% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-70.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is 441.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-19.26%
Return on assets (ROA) is 401.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1
Current ratio is -66.57% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
17.4
Cash conversion cycle is -81.60% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
730.6K
Each employee generates 111% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 197.5K
Each employee generates -1937% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 215.6K
Each employee generates 1136% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.6K
Each employee generates -79% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
824.1K
Each employee generates -79% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -6.85%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -547.91% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
UBER
FIDELITY NATIONAL INFORMATION SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:FIS)
SERVICENOW, INC. (XNYS:NOW)
INFOSYS LIMITED (XNYS:INFY)
BLOCK, INC. (XNYS:SQ)
VMWARE, INC. (XNYS:VMW)
Abb Ltd (XNYS:ABB)
SNOWFLAKE INC. (XNYS:SNOW)
Sony Group Corporation (XNYS:SONY)
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION (XNYS:IBM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
21.41B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
11.67B
9.74B
2.13B
2.48B
7.43B
4.95B
2.14B
11.70B
32.00M
497.00M
944.00M
- 5786000.00K
- 2792000.00K
- 6318000.00K
- 7264000.00K
- 909000.00K
- 6318000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
254.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 281000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
359.00M
Change in Working Capital :
5.60B
Accounts Receivables:
- 26000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
15.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 62000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 59000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 13000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.18B
-
4.18B
2.48B
-
2.01B
8.67B
3.29B
8.44B
2.27B
6.87B
-
3.28B
24.15B
-
32.81B
862.00M
-
-
-
7.79B
8.65B
10.95B
3.39B
14.34B
-
22.99B
-
- 29556000.00K
- 505000.0K
38.98B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
24.20B
8.92B
31.91B
-
10.95B
6.8B
-
- 1000.00K
- 135000.00K
- 62000.00K
-
-
-
- 51000.00K
- 113000.00K
20.00M
- 213000.00K
7.59B
7.81B
15.00M
- 62000.00K
- 47000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
UBER
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$31.49
$34.03
$36.78
$39.75
$42.95