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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
U.S. Bancorp (XNYS:USB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
USB
Name:
U.S. BANCORP (XNYS:USB)
Sector:
8.48B
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Andrew Cecere
Total Employees:
68,796
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -350.35% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF U.S. BANCORP(USB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
45.55
One Month Price Target:
$45.8
Six Month Price Target :
$47.04
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$48.54
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.35
Price Upper limit ($) :
$45.75
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.11
This week:
$40.09
This month :
$34.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
67.34B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.49B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.37%
-14.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.90
$51.74
$34.20
$39.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.07
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.97
$41.02
$42.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
USB
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.50%
Comparison:
USB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -140.95% lower than the industry
& is -122.07% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
USB
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
-0.02%
Monthly returns:
-0.09%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -109.42% below industry average
Classification:
USB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
USB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.61%
Weekly Volatility:
5.84%
Monthly Volatility:
11.67%
Yearly Volatility:
40.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.59%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.31% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.36%
Weekly VaR:
-12.00%
Monthly VaR:
-23.99%
How Much Can the price of
USB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-83.11%
This translates to price declining to:
$35.86
This translates to price declining to:
$7.69
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
USB is a 69.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 45.07% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.63% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
USB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.98
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.7
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.99
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.648
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.737
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.893
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.051
Beta is -7.17% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 1.28% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.03%
Sustainable growth rate is 9.92% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.109
Alpha is -1036.30% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -691% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
USB
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is 0.87% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.53%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.41%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.41%
WACC is -21.14% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.31
Annual revenue growth rate is -63.08% below industry average
EPS:
$4.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.03%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -41.55% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$11.58
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 32.13%
Equity growth rate per share is -17.03% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$22.16
EBITDA per share
$7.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
USB
P/E Ratio:
10.49
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.79
P/E ratio is -23.96% lower than main peers & is -15.49% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $57.58
USB is -20.89% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $35.65
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.90
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.96
Price to sales ratio is -30.73% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.31
Price to free cash flow: 3.93
Price to free cash flow ratio is -54.04% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
21.51%
Net income growth rate is -60.93% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.46%
Dividend yeild: 4.04%
Previous Dividend: $0.46
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.46
Previous Dividend: $1.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.48
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.44
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.95%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.46
2021-12-30--$0.46
2021-06-29--$0.42
2022-03-30--$0.46
2021-09-29--$0.46
2021-03-30--$0.42
Dividend growth rate is -95.97% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
64.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
18.89%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.03
Interest coverage ratio is 1231.35% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.97%
Annual debt growth is -5774% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.28%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.691
Statistical significance of correlation:
USB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 38.06% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.04
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.061
Kurtosis
7.92
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.247
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
USB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.84%
Operating profit margin is -64.14% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.36%
Effective tax rate is -0.89% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.14%
Return on equity (ROE) is 18.53% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is -46.44% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 38.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
332.1K
Each employee generates -13% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
154.0K
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
105.2K
Each employee generates -26% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
123.2K
Each employee generates 48% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.7M
Each employee generates 48% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
USB
BAM
THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (XNYS:BNS)
Truist Financial Corporation (XNYS:TFC)
THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNYS:PNC)
USB-PP
Blackstone Inc (XNYS:BX)
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:MMC)
RY-PT
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (XNYS:MUFG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�88%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
22.85B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
5.86B
-
8.79B
9.19B
398.00M
-
-
13.56B
960.00M
422.00M
10.59B
-
7.24B
9.23B
1.97B
7.24B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
132.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.79B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
8.48B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 18921000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
44.30B
123.59B
167.90B
-
-
-
-
3.21B
10.25B
4.19B
167.25B
-
-
184.90B
771.42B
586.52B
-
21.04B
-
-
-
21.04B
32.93B
-
32.93B
546.74B
534.85B
21.00M
69.99B
- 6938000.0K
- 18678000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
51.20B
586.05B
290.84B
53.97B
9.7B
19.20B
- 7641000.00K
- 7364000.00K
- 1118000.00K
15.00M
- 1154000.00K
- 757000.00K
17.30B
14.29B
-
15.40B
44.30B
28.91B
8.48B
-
8.48B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
USB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$60.48
$64.44
$68.67
$73.17
$77.97