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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tyson Foods, Inc. (XNYS:TSN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TSN
Name:
TYSON FOODS, INC. (XNYS:TSN)
Sector:
1.02B
Industry:
Farm Products
CEO:
Mr. Noel White
Total Employees:
137,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -28.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TYSON FOODS, INC.(TSN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
74.62
One Month Price Target:
$74.91
Six Month Price Target :
$76.35
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$78.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$74.34
Price Upper limit ($) :
$74.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$71.17
This week:
$66.91
This month :
$59.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
26.27B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
359.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.7%
-14.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$90.63
$83.35
$58.61
$65.89
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$80.98
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$79.43
$68.24
$69.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TSN
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.39%
Comparison:
TSN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -121.07% lower than the industry
& is -116.91% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TSN
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
0.00%
Yearly returns:
10.81%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -99.60% below industry average
Classification:
TSN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.79
Statistical test of Returns:
TSN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.25%
Weekly Volatility:
5.03%
Monthly Volatility:
10.06%
Yearly Volatility:
34.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.64%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.50% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.62%
Weekly VaR:
-10.33%
Monthly VaR:
-20.66%
How Much Can the price of
TSN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-71.58%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.98
This translates to price declining to:
$21.21
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TSN is a 45.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.50% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TSN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.69
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.608
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.86
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.513
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.475
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.574
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.468
Beta is 47.61% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.117
Beta is -38.18% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.79%
Sustainable growth rate is 83.73% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.078
Alpha is -93608.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -499% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TSN
Equity cost of capital:
0.079
Equity cost of capital is -27.05% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.86%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.33%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.42%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.42%
WACC is -28.32% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$142.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.45
Annual revenue growth rate is -31.53% below industry average
EPS:
$11.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
23.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -912.74% lower than the Farm Products industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.20
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 48.38%
Equity growth rate per share is -807.90% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$23.01
EBITDA per share
$19.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
TSN
P/E Ratio:
6.71
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.71
P/E ratio is -70.46% lower than main peers & is -82.52% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $446.76
TSN is -83.30% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $65.55
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $31.31
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.52
Price to sales ratio is -60.26% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.45
Price to free cash flow: 12.04
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1.32%
Net income growth rate is -105.33% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.05%
Dividend yeild: 2.45%
Previous Dividend: $0.46
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.46
Previous Dividend: $1.83
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.45
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.44
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.94%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.46
2021-11-30--$0.46
2021-05-28--$0.45
2022-02-28--$0.46
2021-08-31--$0.45
2021-02-26--$0.45
Dividend growth rate is -112.78% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
44.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
34.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.47%
Net debt to assets ratio:
17.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -28.71% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.02
Interest coverage ratio is 31.60% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.56%
Annual debt growth is 8% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.52%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.475
Statistical significance of correlation:
TSN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is 5.25% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.046
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.06
Kurtosis
20.08
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.09
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TSN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
61%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.87%
Operating profit margin is 318.69% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
61%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.18%
Effective tax rate is -53.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is 198.00% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is 174.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.68
Current ratio is -64.05% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
6.6
Cash conversion cycle is -61.05% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
374.7K
Each employee generates -54% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
50.3K
Each employee generates 1% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
29.6K
Each employee generates 11% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.5K
Each employee generates -163% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
194.8K
Each employee generates -163% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TSN
BF-B
BF-A
THE KROGER CO. (XNYS:KR)
HORMEL FOODS CORPORATION (XNYS:HRL)
ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND COMPANY (XNYS:ADM)
COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS PLC (XNAS:CCEP)
CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC. (XNYS:CHD)
THE HERSHEY COMPANY (XNYS:HSY)
MCCORMICK & COMPANY, INCORPORATED (XNYS:MKC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�29%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
51.34B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
43.49B
7.85B
-
-
2.26B
-
-
2.26B
10.00M
405.00M
1.21B
6.89B
5.58B
4.05B
5.30B
1.23B
4.05B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
300.00M
Differed Income Tax :
77.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 82000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.43B
Investments in PP&E:
- 408000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 7000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/1/22
2022
Q1
2.96B
-
2.96B
2.09B
4.45B
635.00M
10.14B
8.01B
10.55B
6.46B
-
-
1.67B
26.69B
-
36.82B
2.12B
1.09B
914.00M
-
2.83B
6.03B
8.27B
1.70B
12.25B
-
18.28B
45.00M
18.45B
- 172000.0K
-
January 1, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
45.76B
18.40B
36.69B
-
9.36B
6.4B
7.00M
- 51000.00K
- 459000.00K
- 43000.00K
-
- 348000.00K
- 164000.00K
71.00M
- 484000.00K
2.00M
319.00M
2.96B
2.64B
1.43B
- 408000.00K
1.02B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TSN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$78.47
$161.65
$169.15
$177.00
$185.22