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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tyler Technologies, Inc. (XNYS:TYL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TYL
Name:
TYLER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:TYL)
Sector:
41.02M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. H. Lynn Moore
Total Employees:
7,143
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -84.13% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TYLER TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(TYL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
363.67
One Month Price Target:
$365.53
Six Month Price Target :
$374.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$385.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$362.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$365.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$347.62
This week:
$327.78
This month :
$291.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.12B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
41.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.28%
-13.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$438.12
$403.76
$289.22
$323.58
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$392.58
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$385.25
$334.66
$342.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TYL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.45%
Comparison:
TYL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 153.78% higher than the industry
& ratio is 7.32% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TYL
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.24%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 50.11% above industry average
Classification:
TYL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
TYL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.18%
Weekly Volatility:
4.87%
Monthly Volatility:
9.75%
Yearly Volatility:
33.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.30%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.21% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.41%
Weekly VaR:
-9.87%
Monthly VaR:
-19.74%
How Much Can the price of
TYL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-68.37%
This translates to price declining to:
$302.79
This translates to price declining to:
$115.03
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TYL is a 39.30% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 19.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.38% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TYL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.894
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.264
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.595
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.855
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.502
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.167
Beta is -21.83% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -31.67% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.70%
Sustainable growth rate is -75.26% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.055
Alpha is -333.62% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 351% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TYL
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -23.56% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.59%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.59%
WACC is -21.19% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$42.17
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.33
Annual revenue growth rate is -47.45% below industry average
EPS:
$3.89
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -99.04% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.15
-
-
Debt per share
$32.00
EBITDA per share
$8.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
TYL
P/E Ratio:
86.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.07
P/E ratio is 196.61% higher than main peers & is -51.46% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $690.85
TYL is -47.36% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.62
Price to sales ratio is -24.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.33
Price to free cash flow: 50.83
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
5.14%
Net income growth rate is -97.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
47.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.89%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -48.66% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.76
Interest coverage ratio is -75.99% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.48%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.635
Statistical significance of correlation:
TYL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 26.27% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.027
Kurtosis
4.191
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.16
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TYL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
173%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.31%
Operating profit margin is -159.04% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
173%
Effective Tax Rate:
4.44%
Effective tax rate is -83.16% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is -152.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.48%
Return on assets (ROA) is -190.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.12
Current ratio is -62.55% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
119.4
Cash conversion cycle is 26.04% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
15.37%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
245.5K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
49.3K
Each employee generates 359% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
23.0K
Each employee generates -232% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.7K
Each employee generates -174% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
540.9K
Each employee generates -174% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.79%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 278.84% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TYL
TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED (XNYS:TDY)
ZENDESK, INC. (XNYS:ZEN)
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (XNYS:ASX)
LEIDOS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:LDOS)
FAIR ISAAC CORPORATION (XNYS:FICO)
PAGSEGURO DIGITAL LTD. (XNYS:PAGS)
PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC. (XNYS:PAYC)
GODADDY INC. (XNYS:GDDY)
BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNYS:BR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�29%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.75B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
995.74M
757.86M
95.61M
-
409.70M
-
54.15M
559.46M
492.00K
27.63M
152.67M
352.41M
198.40M
164.47M
172.11M
7.65M
164.47M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
38.15M
Differed Income Tax :
- 9438.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
25.28M
Change in Working Capital :
- 43460.00K
Accounts Receivables:
20.64M
Other Working Capital:
- 56551.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.03M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
53.54M
Investments in PP&E:
- 4579.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 116698.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 4592.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
243.26M
44.97M
288.24M
501.20M
-
70.46M
859.90M
219.88M
2.44B
1.11B
34.34M
-
60.06M
3.86B
-
4.72B
128.28M
41.19M
1.37M
454.68M
142.31M
766.46M
1.33B
8.74M
1.57B
-
2.34B
481.00K
1.31B
- 743.0K
1.07B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.56B
2.39B
4.72B
79.32M
1.37B
1.1B
22.67M
- 7976.00K
- 111173.00K
- 20000.00K
-
-
-
11.72M
- 8277.00K
-
- 65909.00K
243.26M
309.17M
53.54M
- 12526.00K
41.02M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TYL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$353.63
$375.32
$398.34
$422.77
$448.69