_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Twist Bioscience Corporation (XNAS:TWST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TWST
Name:
TWIST BIOSCIENCE CORPORATION (XNAS:TWST)
Sector:
- 59436.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Ms. Emily Leproust
Total Employees:
652
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -297.53% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TWIST BIOSCIENCE CORPORATION(TWST) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.77
One Month Price Target:
$39.03
Six Month Price Target :
$40.35
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.49
Price Upper limit ($) :
$39.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.56
This week:
$29.37
This month :
$19.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.15B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
56.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.53%
-22.85%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.27
$49.23
$19.27
$28.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$46.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.35
$31.23
$33.19
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TWST
Sharpe Ratio:
3.62%
Comparison:
TWST, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 43.58% higher than the industry
& ratio is 58.62% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TWST
Daily returns:
0.20%
Weekly returns:
1.02%
Monthly returns:
4.07%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 74.84% above industry average
Classification:
TWST, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
TWST has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.38%
Weekly Volatility:
12.03%
Monthly Volatility:
24.06%
Yearly Volatility:
83.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.55%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.70% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.85%
Weekly VaR:
-24.25%
Monthly VaR:
-48.51%
How Much Can the price of
TWST
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.04
This translates to price declining to:
$5.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TWST is a 242.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 193.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 39.36% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TWST
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.21
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.026
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.451
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.11
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.7
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.825
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.201
Beta is 0.80% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 2.45% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.374
Alpha is 124.11% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2379% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TWST
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is 1.77% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.23%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.23%
WACC is 20.01% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.89
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.49
Annual revenue growth rate is 57.50% above the industry average
EPS:
-$3.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -119.36% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.07
EBITDA per share
-$3.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
TWST
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
188.39
-
-
TWST is -128.19% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.4
Price to sales ratio is 40.97% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.49
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
17.75%
Net income growth rate is -107.77% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-18.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.67%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-15.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -84.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-879.92
Interest coverage ratio is 3037.03% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.52%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.448
Statistical significance of correlation:
TWST has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -8.12% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.079
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.248
Kurtosis
1.074
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
-0.039
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TWST
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-121.80%
Operating profit margin is 8.26% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.29%
Effective tax rate is -67.21% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-29.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is -242.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-23.85%
Return on assets (ROA) is -91.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
4.81
Current ratio is -3.20% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0.1
Cash conversion cycle is -99.88% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-9.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
250.2K
Each employee generates -33% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 280.7K
Each employee generates -1035% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 287.6K
Each employee generates -1898% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 91.2K
Each employee generates 4090% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
615.3K
Each employee generates 4090% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 60.61%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -3466.43% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TWST
1LIFE HEALTHCARE, INC (XNAS:ONEM)
TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TGTX)
ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:ACHC)
BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORPORATION (XNAS:BPMC)
MEDPACE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MEDP)
SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SRPT)
ALLAKOS INC. (XNAS:ALLK)
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (XNAS:TNDM)
OMNICELL, INC. (XNAS:OMCL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
163.11M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
100.20M
62.91M
93.14M
-
177.82M
-
-
270.96M
557.00K
208.00K
16.87M
- 183024.00K
- 198671.00K
- 187510.00K
- 200100.00K
- 12590.00K
- 187510.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.15M
Differed Income Tax :
- 10545.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
18.11M
Change in Working Capital :
- 10546.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2032.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 3624.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1257.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 46653.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12783.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 8160.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 217639.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
191.62M
110.24M
301.86M
32.87M
40.24M
10.04M
385.01M
137.16M
84.24M
63.92M
106.84M
-
9.00M
401.16M
-
786.17M
23.07M
12.68M
3.17M
-
44.28M
80.03M
60.29M
19.67M
79.96M
-
159.99M
-
- 656116.00K
363.0K
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
371.16M
626.18M
786.17M
217.08M
72.97M
- 118655.0K
12.00M
-
- 226582.00K
- 1558.00K
-
- 2558.00K
-
3.11M
- 1011.00K
83.00K
- 274163.00K
193.20M
467.36M
- 46653.00K
- 12783.00K
- 59436.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TWST
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$42.05
$45.47
$49.17
$53.17
$57.49