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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Twilio Inc. (XNYS:TWLO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TWLO
Name:
TWILIO INC. (XNYS:TWLO)
Sector:
- 17575.00K
Industry:
Internet Content & Information
CEO:
Mr. Jeff Lawson
Total Employees:
8,510
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 37.09% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TWILIO INC.(TWLO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
67.01
One Month Price Target:
$67.6
Six Month Price Target :
$70.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$74.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$66.56
Price Upper limit ($) :
$67.51
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.29
This week:
$54.23
This month :
$41.45
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
183.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
39.62%
-17.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$93.54
$81.43
$40.48
$52.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$77.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$74.91
$56.50
$59.11
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TWLO
Sharpe Ratio:
0.56%
Comparison:
TWLO, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 1691.17% higher than the industry
& is -75.42% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TWLO
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.64%
Yearly returns:
0.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 5649.86% above industry average
Classification:
TWLO, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
TWLO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.17%
Weekly Volatility:
9.32%
Monthly Volatility:
18.64%
Yearly Volatility:
64.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.32%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.53%
Weekly VaR:
-19.07%
Monthly VaR:
-38.14%
How Much Can the price of
TWLO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$44.65
This translates to price declining to:
$10.05
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TWLO is a 169.21% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 130.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.78% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TWLO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.894
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.265
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.418
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.336
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.594
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.861
Beta is 82.71% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.399
Beta is 12.51% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.062
Alpha is -50.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -395% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TWLO
Equity cost of capital:
0.139
Equity cost of capital is 9.41% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.55%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$17.08
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.12
Annual revenue growth rate is 12.06% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$6.61
EBITDA per share
-$4.23
Valuation Analysis Today of
TWLO
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
64.4
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.92
Price to sales ratio is -23.14% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.12
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
415.70%
Net income growth rate is -625.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.08%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-3.25%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -78.50% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.54%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.445
Statistical significance of correlation:
TWLO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
Stock price is -6.04% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.1
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.242
Kurtosis
11.991
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.141
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TWLO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
194%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-29.93%
Operating profit margin is -5402.56% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
194%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.92%
Effective tax rate is -92.81% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-8.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2.36% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-7.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is -581.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
8.1
Current ratio is 126.31% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
26.4
Cash conversion cycle is -60.98% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-16.09%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
367.5K
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 91.1K
Each employee generates -187% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 113.4K
Each employee generates -355% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.1K
Each employee generates -102% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
829.6K
Each employee generates -102% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 48.76%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -928.84% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TWLO
Spotify Technology SA (XNYS:SPOT)
DOORDASH, INC. (XNYS:DASH)
BCE
Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. (XNYS:CHT)
TELUS Corporation (XNYS:TU)
TWITTER, INC. (XNYS:TWTR)
PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (XNYS:TLK)
Orange SA (XNYS:ORAN)
LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNYS:LYV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.13B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.61B
1.52B
855.03M
476.57M
1.60B
1.12B
-
2.45B
-
-
198.86M
- 775181.19K
- 936053.00K
- 964985.00K
- 979762.00K
- 9061.00K
- 964985.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
78.82M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
155.28M
Change in Working Capital :
- 30038.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 19623.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 17575.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 27682.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 246874.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.62B
3.61B
5.22B
406.74M
-
201.14M
5.83B
484.95M
5.29B
1.01B
-
-
281.28M
7.06B
-
12.89B
93.39M
53.09M
-
139.67M
433.67M
719.82M
1.21B
43.90M
1.25B
-
1.97B
181.00K
- 2341318.00K
- 84984.0K
13.34B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.06B
10.92B
12.89B
-
1.26B
- 354278.0K
442.75M
- 17230.00K
150.97M
- 6520.00K
-
-
-
10.63M
4.11M
27.00K
1.62B
1.62B
1.48M
- 17575.00K
-
- 17575.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TWLO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$55.57
$61.45
$67.95
$75.13
$83.08