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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Turning Point Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:TPTX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TPTX
Name:
TURNING POINT THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:TPTX)
Sector:
- 58778.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Athena Maria Countouriotis
Total Employees:
267
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 11.41% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TURNING POINT THERAPEUTICS, INC.(TPTX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
75.49
One Month Price Target:
$75.4
Six Month Price Target :
$74.98
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$74.47
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$74.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$76.49
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$65.66
This week:
$53.51
This month :
$31.52
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
50.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
118.35%
-23.31%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$121.08
$99.99
$29.90
$50.99
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$93.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$88.62
$57.80
$62.36
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TPTX
Sharpe Ratio:
3.23%
Comparison:
TPTX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 66.01% higher than the industry
& ratio is 41.62% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TPTX
Daily returns:
0.22%
Weekly returns:
1.08%
Monthly returns:
4.34%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 106.42% above industry average
Classification:
TPTX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.39
Statistical test of Returns:
TPTX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.45%
Weekly Volatility:
14.42%
Monthly Volatility:
28.83%
Yearly Volatility:
99.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.02%
Weekly VaR:
-29.12%
Monthly VaR:
-58.24%
How Much Can the price of
TPTX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-49%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.49
This translates to price declining to:
$11.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TPTX is a 311.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 252.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 35.60% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TPTX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500---0.20
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.27
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.382
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.882
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.971
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.519
Beta is -113.27% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -117.50% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.503
Alpha is 254.59% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3202% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TPTX
Equity cost of capital:
0.018
Equity cost of capital is -83.97% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.12
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.24
-
EPS:
-$5.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.09%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 71.26% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.04
EBITDA per share
-$5.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
TPTX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.68
-
-
TPTX is -115.10% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
621.91
Price to sales ratio is 1435.43% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.24
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
249.06%
Net income growth rate is 252.87% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-34.07%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-32.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
46.09%
Annual debt growth is -66% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.238
Statistical significance of correlation:
TPTX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -30.06% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.116
Kurtosis
167.813
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
9.188
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TPTX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-4555.39%
Operating profit margin is 962.65% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-30.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is -46.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-29.35%
Return on assets (ROA) is 43.83% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
20.35
Current ratio is 151.43% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.48%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
22.8K
Each employee generates -99% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1014.6K
Each employee generates -363% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1031.8K
Each employee generates -906% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 220.1K
Each employee generates -250% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
42.5K
Each employee generates -250% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 70.16%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2055.56% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TPTX
OPTION CARE HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:OPCH)
SMILEDIRECTCLUB, INC. (XNAS:SDC)
ARVINAS, INC. (XNAS:ARVN)
HMSY
REATA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RETA)
Berkeley Lights Inc (XNAS:BLI)
INSMED INCORPORATED (XNAS:INSM)
ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (XNAS:ACAD)
KARUNA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KRTX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
6.08M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
25.21K
206.77M
76.17M
76.17M
-
-
282.94M
-
-
4.59M
- 270904.00K
- 276886.00K
- 275492.00K
- 275492.00K
-
- 275492.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.25M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
15.09M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1122.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 6140.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
893.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 58331.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 447.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 134783.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
309.53M
608.66M
918.19M
-
-
9.24M
927.43M
9.31M
-
-
-
-
2.04M
11.36M
-
938.79M
7.61M
3.96M
-
-
34.00M
45.57M
1.87M
-
1.87M
-
47.44M
5.00K
- 591172.00K
- 5392.0K
1.49B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
282.94M
891.35M
938.79M
-
5.83M
- 303698.0K
74.82M
-
- 60412.00K
-
-
-
-
396.00K
396.00K
-
- 118347.00K
311.41M
429.76M
- 58331.00K
- 447.00K
- 58778.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TPTX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$74.84
$17.92
$17.68
$17.44
$17.20