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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ttm Technologies, Inc. (XNAS:TTMI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TTMI
Name:
TTM TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:TTMI)
Sector:
12.55M
Industry:
Electronic Components
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Edman
Total Employees:
16,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 25.06% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TTM TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(TTMI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
15.12
One Month Price Target:
$15.24
Six Month Price Target :
$15.85
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$15.06
Price Upper limit ($) :
$15.19
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.33
This week:
$13.35
This month :
$11.57
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.55B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
102.19M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.35%
-18.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.80
$17.11
$11.44
$13.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.56
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.20
$13.68
$14.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TTMI
Sharpe Ratio:
1.54%
Comparison:
TTMI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -24.03% lower than the industry
& is -32.38% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TTMI
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.97%
Yearly returns:
15.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -26.12% below industry average
Classification:
TTMI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.82
Statistical test of Returns:
TTMI has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.58%
Weekly Volatility:
5.76%
Monthly Volatility:
11.52%
Yearly Volatility:
39.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -29.15% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.24%
Weekly VaR:
-11.73%
Monthly VaR:
-23.45%
How Much Can the price of
TTMI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.23%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.07
This translates to price declining to:
$2.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TTMI is a 65.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.05% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TTMI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.44
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.239
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.752
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.932
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.846
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.794
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.977
Beta is 47.30% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.174
Beta is 22.61% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.73%
Sustainable growth rate is -75.51% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.014
Alpha is -129.53% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -86% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TTMI
Equity cost of capital:
0.130
Equity cost of capital is 16.24% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.72%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.73%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.73%
WACC is 8.90% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.07
-
EPS:
$0.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.63%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -56.40% lower than the Electronic Components industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.88
-
-
Debt per share
$9.36
EBITDA per share
$2.57
Valuation Analysis Today of
TTMI
P/E Ratio:
21.38
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
276.46
P/E ratio is -92.27% lower than main peers & is -10.84% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $16.79
TTMI is -9.94% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.67
Price to sales ratio is -74.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.07
Price to free cash flow: 17.19
Price to free cash flow ratio is -73.39% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
66.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
30.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.41%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.77
Interest coverage ratio is -58.33% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.641
Statistical significance of correlation:
TTMI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.614
Stock price is 4.35% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.614
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
15.942
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.524
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TTMI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
66%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.73%
Operating profit margin is -33.79% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
66%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.59%
Effective tax rate is 18.06% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.17%
Return on equity (ROE) is -70.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is -64.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.45
Current ratio is -4.53% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1.8
Cash conversion cycle is -102.57% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 21.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
143.1K
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
16.3K
Each employee generates -42% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
4.6K
Each employee generates -72% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.8K
Each employee generates -128% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
100.0K
Each employee generates -128% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TTMI
OSI SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:OSIS)
ACM RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:ACMR)
MESA LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:MLAB)
REPAY HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:RPAY)
ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ALKT)
RADWARE LTD. (XNAS:RDWR)
BANDWIDTH INC. (XNAS:BAND)
GOPRO, INC (XNAS:GPRO)
Agora, Inc. (XNAS:API)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/4/22
Revenue:
2.30B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.92B
381.33M
19.23M
126.29M
191.30M
65.01M
34.50M
245.03M
-
45.45M
126.11M
262.38M
132.06M
74.85M
90.83M
15.98M
74.85M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
31.16M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3298.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.23M
Change in Working Capital :
- 12522.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 26085.00K
Other Working Capital:
8.34M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 827.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
35.99M
Investments in PP&E:
- 23445.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/4/22
2022
Q1
519.08M
-
519.08M
731.15M
137.34M
46.62M
1.43B
682.90M
637.32M
230.26M
-
-
59.48M
1.61B
-
3.04B
383.93M
7.13M
10.53M
22.52M
172.99M
586.57M
956.27M
27.14M
1.01B
-
1.60B
108.00K
723.50M
- 25104.0K
-
April 4, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.17B
1.45B
3.04B
-
963.39M
444.3M
-
25.00K
- 23420.00K
-
-
- 30232.00K
-
- 887.00K
- 31119.00K
- 51.00K
- 18599.00K
519.08M
537.68M
35.99M
- 23445.00K
12.55M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TTMI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.66
$73.46
$80.57
$88.36
$96.91