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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ttec Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TTEC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TTEC
Name:
TTEC Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TTEC)
Sector:
- 3005.00K
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Kenneth Tuchman
Total Employees:
59,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -91.76% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TTEC HOLDINGS, INC.(TTEC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.75
One Month Price Target:
$52.03
Six Month Price Target :
$53.41
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$55.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$52.04
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.79
This week:
$45.13
This month :
$38.5
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.44B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
47.21M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.98%
-16.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.49
$59.15
$38.01
$44.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$57.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.73
$46.40
$47.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TTEC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.58%
Comparison:
TTEC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 42.52% higher than the industry
& ratio is 13.32% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TTEC
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.64%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 36.12% above industry average
Classification:
TTEC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
TTEC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.83%
Weekly Volatility:
6.32%
Monthly Volatility:
12.64%
Yearly Volatility:
43.80%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.56% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.72%
Weekly VaR:
-12.80%
Monthly VaR:
-25.60%
How Much Can the price of
TTEC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-88.68%
This translates to price declining to:
$40.52
This translates to price declining to:
$5.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TTEC is a 80.69% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 54.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.82% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TTEC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.793
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.122
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.422
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.688
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.801
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.351
Beta is -29.37% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is -21.05% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
23.86%
Sustainable growth rate is -83.97% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.100
Alpha is 231.41% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 634% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TTEC
Equity cost of capital:
0.097
Equity cost of capital is -15.25% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.57%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.24%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.24%
WACC is -29.40% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$49.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.01
Annual revenue growth rate is 159.99% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.62
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.40%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 530.84% higher than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.75
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 63.63%
Equity growth rate per share is 102.96% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$18.50
EBITDA per share
$5.99
Valuation Analysis Today of
TTEC
P/E Ratio:
24.09
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
403.97
P/E ratio is -94.04% lower than main peers & is -49.26% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $124.37
TTEC is -58.39% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.05
Price to sales ratio is -71.20% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.01
Price to free cash flow: 18.83
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
286.65%
Net income growth rate is -99.64% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 6.84%
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.50
Previous Dividend: $3.54
Expected next dividend best case: $1.46
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.46
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.71
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 77.69%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/06/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/03/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-03-30--$0.50
2021-04-01--$0.43
2020-10-13--$0.40
2021-10-07--$0.47
2020-12-17--$2.14
2020-03-31--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -1179.19% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
163.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
141.92%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.56%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -32.93% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
19.72
Interest coverage ratio is -52.80% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
109.93%
Annual debt growth is 1750% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.14%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.478
Statistical significance of correlation:
TTEC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is -19.77% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.064
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.104
Kurtosis
4.259
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.459
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TTEC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
97%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.27%
Operating profit margin is -219.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
97%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.83%
Effective tax rate is -13.54% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.16%
Return on equity (ROE) is -58.83% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is 6977.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.6
Current ratio is -31.11% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
42.3
Cash conversion cycle is 12.83% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.02%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
39.4K
Each employee generates -91% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
4.8K
Each employee generates -89% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.1K
Each employee generates -75% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.1K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
22.0K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TTEC
SHOALS TECHNOLOGIES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHLS)
CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD. (XNAS:CYBR)
ALLEGRO MICROSYSTEMS, INC (XNAS:ALGM)
Rackspace Technology, Inc. (XNAS:RXT)
FEYE
SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:SYNA)
AMKOR TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AMKR)
ALTAIR ENGINEERING INC. (XNAS:ALTR)
Novanta Inc. (XNAS:NOVT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.32B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.76B
559.91M
-
-
252.08M
-
102.88M
354.95M
782.00K
14.35M
102.88M
282.93M
192.08M
123.96M
182.89M
41.75M
123.96M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
26.63M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4679.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.74M
Change in Working Capital :
- 51419.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 41128.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 19488.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.45M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
13.69M
Investments in PP&E:
- 16691.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
156.83M
-
156.83M
442.41M
-
153.46M
752.69M
265.71M
739.53M
202.61M
-
15.16M
75.98M
1.30B
-
2.05B
78.00M
43.34M
12.21M
92.85M
257.69M
471.88M
873.14M
93.17M
971.31M
-
1.44B
470.00K
865.95M
- 97464.0K
- 233678.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.12B
535.28M
1.98B
-
916.48M
759.7M
-
7.00K
- 16684.00K
- 1242.00K
-
-
-
- 2606.00K
- 3848.00K
- 1629.00K
- 8475.00K
172.21M
180.68M
13.69M
- 16691.00K
- 3005.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TTEC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$55.35
$398.83
$424.40
$451.62
$480.58