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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Trustpilot Group Plc (XLON:TRST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TRST
Name:
Trustpilot Group PLC (XLON:TRST)
Sector:
10.18M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Robert Joseph McCormick
Total Employees:
786
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRUSTPILOT GROUP PLC(TRST) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
60
One Month Price Target:
$60.53
Six Month Price Target :
$63.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$66.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$59.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$60.34
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.86
This week:
$48.5
This month :
$37.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
249.19M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
415.53M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.53%
-22.07%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$83.97
$73.59
$36.03
$46.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$70.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$68.00
$49.76
$52.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TRST
Sharpe Ratio:
-9.74%
Comparison:
TRST, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -893.07% lower than the industry
& is -527.43% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TRST
Daily returns:
-0.38%
Weekly returns:
-1.90%
Monthly returns:
-7.60%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -935.39% below industry average
Classification:
TRST, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.09
Statistical test of Returns:
TRST has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.99%
Weekly Volatility:
8.92%
Monthly Volatility:
17.84%
Yearly Volatility:
61.80%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.57%
Weekly VaR:
-19.17%
Monthly VaR:
-38.34%
How Much Can the price of
TRST
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$37.03
This translates to price declining to:
$9.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TRST is a 170.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 131.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 39.65% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TRST
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.481
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.091
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.069
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.369
Beta is 15.47% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 64.06% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.02%
Sustainable growth rate is -34.10% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-1.051
Alpha is -9161.45% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -6692% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TRST
Equity cost of capital:
0.140
Equity cost of capital is 43.37% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
13.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.12%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.67%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.67%
WACC is 16.54% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.43
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
42.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -100.80% below industry average
EPS:
$3.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.24%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -81.38% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.79
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 4.50%
Equity growth rate per share is -88.38% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.13
EBITDA per share
$0.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
TRST
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.26
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $41.57
TRST is 44.34% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
139.22
Price to sales ratio is 3155.23% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
42.05
Price to free cash flow: 21.48
Price to free cash flow ratio is -47.83% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
0.12%
Net income growth rate is -99.78% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.43%
Dividend yeild: 2.32%
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.39
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 40.39%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.35
2021-12-02--$0.35
2021-06-03--$0.34
2022-03-03--$0.35
2021-09-02--$0.34
2021-03-04--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is 71.46% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
42.83%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
4.04%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.14
Interest coverage ratio is 1847.40% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.16%
Annual debt growth is 3425% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.027
Statistical significance of correlation:
TRST does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -94.62% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.09
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.163
Kurtosis
3.547
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.223
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TRST
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
24.97%
Effective tax rate is 15.88% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.88%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.03%
Return on assets (ROA) is -55.43% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
227.8K
Each employee generates -40% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
131.0K
Each employee generates -42% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
82.1K
Each employee generates -42% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
13.0K
Each employee generates -84% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -84% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TRST
AGC
HUDSON EXECUTIVE INVESTMENT CORP. III (XNAS:HIII)
TWCT
E.MERGE TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORP. (XNAS:ETAC)
THE BEAUTY HEALTH COMPANY (XNAS:SKIN)
CARLYLE SECURED LENDING, INC. (XNAS:CGBD)
Fanhua Inc. (XNAS:FANH)
BOWX
BLUCORA, INC. (XNAS:BCOR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
179.09M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
57.06M
59.30M
2.24M
-
-
166.78M
6.38M
10.60M
102.98M
-
64.53M
86.00M
21.47M
64.53M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.63M
Differed Income Tax :
744.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 9598.00K
Accounts Receivables:
202.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
110.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
10.98M
Investments in PP&E:
- 796.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 34097.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
47.53M
408.99M
456.52M
-
-
-
-
81.21M
-
-
418.17M
-
-
-
6.28B
6.28B
-
248.37M
-
-
-
248.37M
53.09M
-
53.09M
5.49B
5.69B
20.05M
355.95M
- 2369.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
592.90M
6.28B
827.17M
301.47M
253.9M
23.64M
- 24881.00K
- 36135.00K
-
-
- 609.00K
- 6727.00K
85.57M
78.24M
-
53.08M
1.27B
1.22B
10.98M
- 796.00K
10.18M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TRST
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$75.82
$83.88
$92.79
$102.65
$113.55