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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Triumph Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:TBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TBK
Name:
TRIUMPH BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBK)
Sector:
51.13M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Aaron Graft
Total Employees:
1,365
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 158.03% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRIUMPH BANCORP, INC.(TBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
59.84
One Month Price Target:
$60.24
Six Month Price Target :
$62.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$64.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$59.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$60.29
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.44
This week:
$50.01
This month :
$40.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.14%
-23.87%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$80.22
$70.78
$39.46
$48.90
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$67.70
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.69
$51.95
$53.99
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TBK
Sharpe Ratio:
3.40%
Comparison:
TBK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 176.71% higher than the industry
& ratio is 49.13% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TBK
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.66%
Monthly returns:
2.65%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 191.70% above industry average
Classification:
TBK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
TBK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.64%
Weekly Volatility:
8.14%
Monthly Volatility:
16.28%
Yearly Volatility:
56.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.82%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.35%
Weekly VaR:
-16.42%
Monthly VaR:
-32.85%
How Much Can the price of
TBK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$43.37
This translates to price declining to:
$8.98
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TBK is a 131.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.62% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 27.46% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TBK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.762
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.078
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.211
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.712
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.085
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.107
Beta is 7.01% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 22.92% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.206
Alpha is 1672.48% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1309% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TBK
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is 15.51% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.00%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.65
Annual revenue growth rate is 146.73% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.96
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
24.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 102.89% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.19
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 463.85%
Equity growth rate per share is 1097.88% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$10.18
Valuation Analysis Today of
TBK
P/E Ratio:
12.93
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.48
P/E ratio is -21.57% lower than main peers & is 4.19% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $49.14
TBK is 21.78% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.49
Price to sales ratio is 4.90% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.65
Price to free cash flow: 9.66
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
122.10%
Net income growth rate is 121.71% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.45%
Dividend yeild: 29.76%
Previous Dividend: $17.81
Previous adjusted dividend: $17.81
Previous Dividend: $17.81
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $17.81
-
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/03/2021
Previous dividend record date: 15/03/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/02/2021
Dividend History:
2021-03-12--$17.81
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
593.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.63%
Debt to assets ratio:
85.58%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.11%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -48.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
15.14
Interest coverage ratio is 1727.22% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-16.43%
Annual debt growth is -5288% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.468
Statistical significance of correlation:
TBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -6.44% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.019
Kurtosis
4.891
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.115
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TBK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.01%
Operating profit margin is -77.64% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.17%
Effective tax rate is 2.88% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.20%
Return on equity (ROE) is 69.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.95%
Return on assets (ROA) is 27.92% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
6.9x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
239.1K
Each employee generates -37% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
182.5K
Each employee generates -19% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
131.2K
Each employee generates -7% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
37.5K
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
204.6K
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TBK
SANDY SPRING BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SASR)
TOWNE BANK (XNAS:TOWN)
CORVEL CORPORATION (XNAS:CRVL)
WASHINGTON FEDERAL, INC. (XNAS:WAFD)
TRUSTMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:TRMK)
HEARTLAND FINANCIAL USA, INC. (XNAS:HTLF)
BGC PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:BGCP)
BANCFIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BANF)
VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:VRTS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
326.32M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
163.80M
168.09M
4.28M
-
-
402.64M
16.45M
24.07M
249.09M
-
179.13M
132.83M
29.45M
179.13M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.06M
Differed Income Tax :
- 127.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.95M
Change in Working Capital :
16.65M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 19.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 76489.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
51.13M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 67244.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
67.62M
5.09M
72.71M
-
-
-
72.71M
-
230.49M
38.63M
-
10.17M
-
279.29M
6.28B
6.08B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.19B
5.19B
283.00K
422.88M
8.1M
455.45M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
886.67M
6.08B
-
-
- 67622.0K
-
- 38278.00K
- 105522.00K
- 27144.00K
-
688.00K
- 801.00K
112.18M
84.92M
-
30.53M
413.70M
383.18M
51.13M
-
51.13M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TBK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$76.60
$82.69
$89.28
$96.38
$104.05