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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tristate Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TSC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TSC
Name:
TriState Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TSC)
Sector:
24.76M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. James Getz
Total Employees:
324
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -919.82% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRISTATE CAPITAL HOLDINGS, INC.(TSC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.6
One Month Price Target:
$28.91
Six Month Price Target :
$30.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.41
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.12
This week:
$23.05
This month :
$17.51
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
965.04M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
42.52%
-35.11%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.11
$34.81
$17.09
$22.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$33.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.95
$24.11
$25.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TSC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.38%
Comparison:
TSC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 93.70% higher than the industry
& ratio is 4.40% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TSC
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.55%
Monthly returns:
2.21%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 143.35% above industry average
Classification:
TSC, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
TSC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.28%
Weekly Volatility:
9.57%
Monthly Volatility:
19.13%
Yearly Volatility:
66.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.67%
Weekly VaR:
-19.40%
Monthly VaR:
-38.79%
How Much Can the price of
TSC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.15
This translates to price declining to:
$4.29
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TSC is a 173.80% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 134.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 49.75% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TSC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.92
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.141
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.656
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.044
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.998
Beta is 91.90% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 98.75% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.70%
Sustainable growth rate is 6.23% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.103
Alpha is 786.28% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 655% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TSC
Equity cost of capital:
0.163
Equity cost of capital is 66.85% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
120.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
94.95%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
94.95%
WACC is 43.80% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.15
Annual revenue growth rate is 48.63% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -90.16% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.00
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$4.50
Valuation Analysis Today of
TSC
P/E Ratio:
13.61
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
53.01
P/E ratio is -74.32% lower than main peers & is 9.69% higher than the industry
-
TSC is -23148.46% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.8
Price to sales ratio is -11.19% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.15
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -51.30% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
39.96%
Net income growth rate is -27.44% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.53%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1454.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
5.18%
Debt to assets ratio:
93.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.32%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -43.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.88
Interest coverage ratio is 247.43% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
11.03%
Annual debt growth is 3383% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.374
Statistical significance of correlation:
TSC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -25.23% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.092
Kurtosis
33.337
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.828
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TSC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
13.78%
Effective tax rate is -36.04% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.59%
Return on equity (ROE) is -19.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is -74.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
15.5x
Current Ratio:
16.93
Current ratio is -71.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
781.7K
Each employee generates 106% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
467.3K
Each employee generates 107% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
248.0K
Each employee generates 75% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
76.4K
Each employee generates -8% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
386.9K
Each employee generates -8% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TSC
AMERISAFE, INC (XNAS:AMSF)
JAMES RIVER GROUP HOLDINGS, LTD. (XNAS:JRVR)
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION (XNAS:ZIONO)
REPUBLIC BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:RBCAA)
Calamos Conv Opp Inc (XNAS:CHI)
GERMAN AMERICAN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GABC)
Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:WASH)
FTOC
Hut 8 Mining Corp. (XNAS:HUT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
253.28M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
85.90M
89.73M
3.84M
-
3.18M
246.88M
52.58M
5.11M
151.40M
-
80.37M
96.85M
13.35M
80.37M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.32M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.06M
Change in Working Capital :
2.06M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
28.08M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3315.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1434.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
345.00K
714.16M
714.51M
25.89M
-
-
740.40M
63.83M
41.66M
19.86M
824.28M
-
- 824275.00K
125.35M
13.06B
13.68B
-
43.74M
-
-
-
43.74M
-
12.80B
12.80B
-
12.84B
335.67M
338.27M
- 21082.0K
185.27M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
838.14M
13.68B
1.54B
43.74M
43.4M
17.87M
- 666805.00K
- 653684.00K
- 53327.00K
- 3984.00K
- 3984.00K
- 2033.00K
718.79M
655.46M
-
29.86M
481.87M
452.02M
28.08M
- 3315.00K
24.76M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TSC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.08
$31.69
$35.77
$40.37
$45.57