_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tripadvisor, Inc. (XNAS:TRIP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TRIP
Name:
TRIPADVISOR, INC. (XNAS:TRIP)
Sector:
72.00M
Industry:
Travel Services
CEO:
Mr. Stephen Kaufer
Total Employees:
2,852
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -709.02% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRIPADVISOR, INC.(TRIP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRAVEL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.4
One Month Price Target:
$23.57
Six Month Price Target :
$24.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.49
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.45
This week:
$19.04
This month :
$14.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.27B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
139.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.67%
-18.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.44
$28.31
$14.36
$18.49
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$26.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.08
$19.83
$20.72
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TRIP
Sharpe Ratio:
1.03%
Comparison:
TRIP, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 284.41% higher than the industry
& is -54.80% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TRIP
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.25%
Monthly returns:
1.02%
Yearly returns:
3.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 264.62% above industry average
Classification:
TRIP, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
TRIP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.08%
Weekly Volatility:
9.12%
Monthly Volatility:
18.24%
Yearly Volatility:
63.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.75%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.15% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.33%
Weekly VaR:
-18.62%
Monthly VaR:
-37.24%
How Much Can the price of
TRIP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.83
This translates to price declining to:
$3.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TRIP is a 162.82% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 125.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.57% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TRIP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.33
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.262
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.785
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.665
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.973
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.684
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.437
Beta is -7.55% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.849
Beta is -28.16% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.000
Alpha is -99.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -3% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TRIP
Equity cost of capital:
0.123
Equity cost of capital is -22.55% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.14%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.84%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.84%
WACC is 3.78% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.27
Annual revenue growth rate is 84.38% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.07
-
-
Debt per share
$6.59
EBITDA per share
$0.21
Valuation Analysis Today of
TRIP
P/E Ratio:
36.43
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.35
P/E ratio is 122.86% higher than main peers & is -92.70% lower than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.14
Price to sales ratio is -64.25% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.27
Price to free cash flow: 21.77
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-233.88%
Net income growth rate is -275.43% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 14.96%
Previous Dividend: $3.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $3.50
Previous Dividend: $3.50
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $3.50
-
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 12/04/2019
Previous dividend record date: 20/11/2019
Previous dividend declaration date: 11/08/2019
Dividend History:
2019-11-19--$3.50
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
120.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
21.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.87%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.00%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.65
Interest coverage ratio is -123.25% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
50.32%
Annual debt growth is 507% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.22%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.471
Statistical significance of correlation:
TRIP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.558
Stock price is -15.62% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.558
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
4.229
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.749
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TRIP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
368%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-6.44%
Operating profit margin is -98.21% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
368%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.07%
Effective tax rate is -79.23% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-13.30%
Return on equity (ROE) is -78.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.30%
Return on assets (ROA) is -62.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
2.23
Current ratio is 39.73% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-75.7
Cash conversion cycle is -186.64% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-21.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
365.0K
Each employee generates 28% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
10.5K
Each employee generates -226% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 35.8K
Each employee generates -48% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
25.2K
Each employee generates 26% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
466.0K
Each employee generates 26% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TRIP
LESLIE'S, INC. (XNAS:LESL)
STAY
ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC. (XNAS:ASO)
NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EYE)
Diversey Holdings, Ltd. (XNAS:DSEY)
NIKOLA CORPORATION (XNAS:NKLA)
DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC. (XNAS:DORM)
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:HOVNP)
LGI HOMES, INC. (XNAS:LGIH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�75%
Sell�21%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.04B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
84.00M
957.00M
51.00M
380.00M
918.00M
538.00M
55.00M
1.02B
1.00M
46.00M
107.00M
30.00M
- 67000.00K
- 102000.00K
- 123000.00K
- 21000.00K
- 102000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
25.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
22.00M
Change in Working Capital :
69.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 45000.00K
Other Working Capital:
111.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
86.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
781.00M
-
781.00M
229.00M
-
33.00M
1.04B
248.00M
839.00M
62.00M
36.00M
54.00M
90.00M
1.33B
-
2.37B
12.00M
25.00M
2.00M
59.00M
371.00M
467.00M
922.00M
215.00M
1.14B
-
1.61B
-
207.00M
- 60000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.11B
767.00M
2.37B
-
947.00M
166.0M
-
- 14000.00K
- 14000.00K
- 2000.00K
-
-
-
- 8000.00K
- 10000.00K
- 4000.00K
58.00M
781.00M
723.00M
86.00M
- 14000.00K
72.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TRIP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$19.12
$20.82
$22.68
$24.71
$26.91