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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Trimble Inc. (XNAS:TRMB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TRMB
Name:
TRIMBLE INC. (XNAS:TRMB)
Sector:
138.50M
Industry:
Scientific & Technical Instruments
CEO:
Mr. Robert Painter
Total Employees:
11,931
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -101.62% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRIMBLE INC.(TRMB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
62.12
One Month Price Target:
$62.67
Six Month Price Target :
$65.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$68.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$61.9
Price Upper limit ($) :
$62.46
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$58.81
This week:
$54.72
This month :
$47.33
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
14.91B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
247.66M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.81%
-18.6%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.46
$70.34
$46.78
$53.90
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$68.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$66.51
$56.19
$57.73
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TRMB
Sharpe Ratio:
3.47%
Comparison:
TRMB, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 155.64% higher than the industry
& ratio is 52.32% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TRMB
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.50%
Monthly returns:
2.01%
Yearly returns:
11.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 118.13% above industry average
Classification:
TRMB, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
TRMB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.64%
Weekly Volatility:
5.91%
Monthly Volatility:
11.81%
Yearly Volatility:
40.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.50% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.32%
Weekly VaR:
-11.91%
Monthly VaR:
-23.81%
How Much Can the price of
TRMB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-82.49%
This translates to price declining to:
$49.76
This translates to price declining to:
$10.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TRMB is a 68.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.98% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TRMB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.07
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.513
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.213
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.031
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.727
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.244
Beta is 26.98% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.276
Beta is 23.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.85%
Sustainable growth rate is -41.07% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.102
Alpha is -1332.59% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 647% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TRMB
Equity cost of capital:
0.140
Equity cost of capital is 17.50% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.54%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.58%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.58%
WACC is 23.67% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.21
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.86
Annual revenue growth rate is 8.87% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.92
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.82%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -132.10% lower than the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.50
-
-
Debt per share
$5.74
EBITDA per share
$3.31
Valuation Analysis Today of
TRMB
P/E Ratio:
30.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
250.68
P/E ratio is -87.89% lower than main peers & is -30.03% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $83.27
TRMB is -25.40% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.08
Price to sales ratio is -16.13% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.86
Price to free cash flow: 24.81
Price to free cash flow ratio is -30.04% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
73.87%
Net income growth rate is -371.41% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
35.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
26.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.81%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.69
Interest coverage ratio is 10.13% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.57%
Annual debt growth is -111% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.71%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.712
Statistical significance of correlation:
TRMB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.619
Stock price is 15.03% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.619
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.029
Kurtosis
9.991
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.197
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TRMB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
222%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.32%
Operating profit margin is 45.46% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
222%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.15%
Effective tax rate is -62.22% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.25%
Return on equity (ROE) is -36.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is 26.86% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.26
Current ratio is -46.74% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35.9
Cash conversion cycle is -35.41% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
315.7K
Each employee generates -2% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
68.6K
Each employee generates 7% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
40.9K
Each employee generates 19% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.6K
Each employee generates 192% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
470.4K
Each employee generates 192% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 12.75%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 329.77% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TRMB
ENPHASE ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:ENPH)
MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MPWR)
NETAPP, INC. (XNAS:NTAP)
SS&C TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SSNC)
ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (XNAS:ZI)
SPLUNK INC. (XNAS:SPLK)
NICE LTD (XNAS:NICE)
AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:AKAM)
ENTEGRIS, INC. (XNAS:ENTG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.77B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.68B
2.09B
547.50M
385.20M
901.50M
516.30M
49.30M
1.50B
-
64.50M
178.40M
818.60M
577.00M
488.50M
575.70M
87.20M
488.50M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
44.60M
Differed Income Tax :
- 16800.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
28.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 30100.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 34600.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 2300.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
153.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 14500.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
357.20M
-
357.20M
655.70M
401.00M
151.60M
1.57B
381.90M
3.97B
468.70M
-
494.90M
295.40M
5.61B
-
7.18B
213.30M
-
-
622.70M
411.00M
1.25B
1.42B
202.20M
1.94B
-
3.19B
300.00K
2.17B
- 163900.0K
1.98B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.17B
3.99B
7.18B
-
1.42B
1.1B
-
1.10M
- 13400.00K
- 118800.00K
-
- 107100.00K
-
116.20M
- 109700.00K
1.60M
31.50M
357.20M
325.70M
153.00M
- 14500.00K
138.50M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TRMB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$69.05
$193.99
$214.58
$237.36
$262.55