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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Trimas Corporation (XNAS:TRS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TRS
Name:
TRIMAS CORPORATION (XNAS:TRS)
Sector:
- 6220.00K
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Amato
Total Employees:
3,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -7.19% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRIMAS CORPORATION(TRS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.81
One Month Price Target:
$26.92
Six Month Price Target :
$27.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.7
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.92
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.51
This week:
$23.9
This month :
$20.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.13B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
42.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.84%
-12.61%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.86
$30.11
$20.76
$23.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$29.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.62
$24.40
$25.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TRS
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.07%
Comparison:
TRS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -103.92% lower than the industry
& is -103.26% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TRS
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.14%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -89.53% below industry average
Classification:
TRS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
TRS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.37%
Weekly Volatility:
5.30%
Monthly Volatility:
10.60%
Yearly Volatility:
36.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.86%
Weekly VaR:
-10.87%
Monthly VaR:
-21.73%
How Much Can the price of
TRS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-75.28%
This translates to price declining to:
$21.68
This translates to price declining to:
$6.63
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TRS is a 53.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 31.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.39% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TRS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.71
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.661
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.934
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.451
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.428
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.687
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.154
Beta is -38.52% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is -44.63% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.11%
Sustainable growth rate is -25.35% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.063
Alpha is -246.01% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -402% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TRS
Equity cost of capital:
0.080
Equity cost of capital is -32.85% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.53%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.53%
WACC is -84.16% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$20.82
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -86.57% below industry average
EPS:
$1.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-15.40%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -604.94% lower than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.77
-
-
Debt per share
$10.49
EBITDA per share
$3.32
Valuation Analysis Today of
TRS
P/E Ratio:
17.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
86.12
P/E ratio is -79.89% lower than main peers & is -37.07% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.14
TRS is -27.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.43
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.50
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.29
Price to sales ratio is -68.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.78
Price to free cash flow: 15.13
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-27.66%
Net income growth rate is -2154.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.98%
Dividend yeild: 0.45%
Previous Dividend: $0.04
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.04
Previous Dividend: $0.12
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.04
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-04--$0.04
2021-11-02--$0.04
--$0.00
2022-03-03--$0.04
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
69.49%
Net debt to equity ratio:
62.34%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.19%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.65% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.69
Interest coverage ratio is -50.34% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
15.88%
Annual debt growth is -79% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.444
Statistical significance of correlation:
TRS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is -30.15% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.007
Kurtosis
5.356
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.2
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TRS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.97%
Operating profit margin is -145.28% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.63%
Effective tax rate is -5.68% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is 174.31% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is -4.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.48
Current ratio is -17.91% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
24.9
Cash conversion cycle is -59.61% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.83%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
249.9K
Each employee generates -94% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
39.8K
Each employee generates -95% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
16.7K
Each employee generates -96% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.8K
Each employee generates -103% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
264.3K
Each employee generates -103% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TRS
H&E EQUIPMENT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:HEES)
MARTEN TRANSPORT, LTD. (XNAS:MRTN)
COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION (XNAS:CMCO)
Raven Property Group Limited (MISX:RAVN)
HEARTLAND EXPRESS, INC. (XNAS:HTLD)
US ECOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ECOL)
FORTERRA, INC. (XNAS:FRTA)
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
OMEGA FLEX, INC. (XNAS:OFLX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
874.69M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
655.12M
219.57M
-
-
123.53M
-
-
123.53M
-
14.37M
53.97M
139.26M
95.91M
58.42M
70.92M
12.50M
58.42M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.76M
Differed Income Tax :
3.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.82M
Change in Working Capital :
- 29130.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.05M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.67M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 63950.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
53.69M
-
53.69M
150.50M
158.36M
21.42M
383.97M
332.99M
345.01M
204.26M
-
7.92M
34.90M
925.08M
-
1.31B
94.87M
8.40M
-
-
51.56M
154.83M
440.43M
57.50M
520.39M
-
675.22M
430.00K
- 88130.00K
- 2010.0K
723.54M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
778.65M
633.83M
1.31B
-
448.83M
395.1M
-
- 11870.00K
- 75820.00K
-
-
- 10030.00K
- 1740.00K
-
- 11770.00K
-
- 81920.00K
58.82M
140.74M
5.67M
- 11890.00K
- 6220.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TRS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.23
$49.33
$51.69
$54.15
$56.73