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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Trico Bancshares (XNAS:TCBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TCBK
Name:
TRICO BANCSHARES (XNAS:TCBK)
Sector:
34.21M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Richard Smith
Total Employees:
1,094
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -481.14% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRICO BANCSHARES(TCBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
46.61
One Month Price Target:
$46.74
Six Month Price Target :
$47.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$48.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$46.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$46.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.18
This week:
$41.17
This month :
$35.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.53B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.35M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.62%
-9.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.91
$52.71
$35.31
$40.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$51.02
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.91
$42.19
$43.31
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TCBK
Sharpe Ratio:
1.90%
Comparison:
TCBK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 55.06% higher than the industry
& is -16.43% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TCBK
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.16%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 27.21% above industry average
Classification:
TCBK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
TCBK has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.57%
Weekly Volatility:
5.75%
Monthly Volatility:
11.50%
Yearly Volatility:
39.84%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.22%
Weekly VaR:
-11.68%
Monthly VaR:
-23.36%
How Much Can the price of
TCBK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.92%
This translates to price declining to:
$37.29
This translates to price declining to:
$8.89
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TCBK is a 64.88% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.25% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.98% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TCBK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.49
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.693
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.448
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.439
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.84
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.867
Beta is -42.68% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -48.41% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.04%
Sustainable growth rate is -1.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.073
Alpha is 531.34% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 466% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TCBK
Equity cost of capital:
0.066
Equity cost of capital is -32.77% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.16%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.50%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.50%
WACC is -43.53% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.4
Annual revenue growth rate is 3.29% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.27%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -22.90% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.09
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 62.04%
Equity growth rate per share is 60.23% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$5.03
EBITDA per share
$4.89
Valuation Analysis Today of
TCBK
P/E Ratio:
13.44
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.04
P/E ratio is 21.74% higher than main peers & is 8.29% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $43.31
TCBK is 7.63% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.32
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $19.51
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.69
Price to sales ratio is 9.73% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.4
Price to free cash flow: 11.40
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
76.21%
Net income growth rate is 38.38% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.12%
Dividend yeild: 2.15%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $1.00
Expected next dividend best case: $0.26
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.24
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.36%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.25
2021-12-16--$0.25
2021-06-10--$0.25
2022-03-10--$0.25
2021-09-09--$0.25
2021-03-11--$0.25
Dividend growth rate is -94.23% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-78.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.00% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
30.73
Interest coverage ratio is 3607.83% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
19.48%
Annual debt growth is 6052% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.454
Statistical significance of correlation:
TCBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -9.24% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.022
Kurtosis
4.642
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.591
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TCBK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
27.99%
Effective tax rate is 29.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.41%
Return on equity (ROE) is -21.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.03%
Return on assets (ROA) is -55.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
302.8K
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
149.0K
Each employee generates -34% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
95.4K
Each employee generates -33% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
31.3K
Each employee generates -62% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.7M
Each employee generates -62% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TCBK
THE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBBK)
FIRST BUSEY CORPORATION (XNAS:BUSE)
SOUTHSIDE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:SBSI)
S & T BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:STBA)
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ECPG)
BROOKLINE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:BRKL)
OCEANFIRST FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:OCFC)
FIRST BANCORP (XNAS:FBNC)
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SAFT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
331.21M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
128.81M
131.14M
2.34M
-
-
277.55M
5.30M
12.71M
162.97M
-
104.38M
144.95M
40.57M
104.38M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.01M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
812.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 3231.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 83.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 2347.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.88M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
34.85M
Investments in PP&E:
- 631.00K
Net Acquisitions:
426.88M
Purchases of Investments:
- 247354.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.04B
2.36B
3.40B
30.88M
-
-
-
102.10M
307.94M
21.78M
2.55B
-
-
2.98B
13.10B
10.12B
653.00K
-
-
-
-
-
167.67M
-
167.67M
9.18B
9.01B
706.67M
479.87M
- 77358.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.11B
10.12B
4.92B
167.67M
- 868015.0K
98.19M
- 155176.00K
121.91M
-
-
-
- 7433.00K
117.94M
110.50M
-
267.26M
1.04B
768.42M
34.85M
- 631.00K
34.21M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TCBK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$53.44
$55.23
$57.07
$58.98
$60.95