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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:TVTX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TVTX
Name:
Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:TVTX)
Sector:
- 60587.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Total Employees:
310
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -19.10% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRAVERE THERAPEUTICS, INC.(TVTX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.23
One Month Price Target:
$27.32
Six Month Price Target :
$27.76
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$27.44
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.29
This week:
$22.89
This month :
$18.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.65B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
63.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.77%
-18.97%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.22
$32.03
$18.24
$22.43
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.77
$23.78
$24.69
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TVTX
Sharpe Ratio:
4.42%
Comparison:
TVTX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 127.30% higher than the industry
& ratio is 93.91% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TVTX
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.83%
Monthly returns:
3.31%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 57.63% above industry average
Classification:
TVTX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
TVTX has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.55%
Weekly Volatility:
7.93%
Monthly Volatility:
15.87%
Yearly Volatility:
54.97%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.92%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 10.38% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.12%
Weekly VaR:
-15.92%
Monthly VaR:
-31.85%
How Much Can the price of
TVTX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.08
This translates to price declining to:
$4.08
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TVTX is a 124.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 92.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -25.37% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TVTX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.404
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.571
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.195
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.494
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.614
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -50.15% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.327
Alpha is 130.38% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2080% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TVTX
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -35.84% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.40%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.35%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.35%
WACC is -42.22% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.57
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.37
Annual revenue growth rate is -96.89% below industry average
EPS:
-$3.27
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-4.54%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -145.47% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$6.33
EBITDA per share
-$2.46
Valuation Analysis Today of
TVTX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
TVTX is -109.28% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.62
Price to sales ratio is -81.19% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.37
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
49.18%
Net income growth rate is -30.33% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
194.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
73.13%
Debt to assets ratio:
48.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.37%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 15.90% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-9.06
Interest coverage ratio is -92.34% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
21.66%
Annual debt growth is -84% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 34.30%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.273
Statistical significance of correlation:
TVTX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -19.59% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.038
Kurtosis
3.527
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.013
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TVTX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
387%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-78.90%
Operating profit margin is -81.59% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
387%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.07%
Effective tax rate is -101.28% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-97.14%
Return on equity (ROE) is 69.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-24.41%
Return on assets (ROA) is 19.63% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
5.28
Current ratio is -34.75% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-692.2
Cash conversion cycle is -229.87% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 23.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.05%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
737.3K
Each employee generates -54% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 506.7K
Each employee generates -232% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 652.2K
Each employee generates -610% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 195.4K
Each employee generates -233% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
636.5K
Each employee generates -233% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 59.61%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1761.64% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TVTX
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
228.57M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.28M
221.29M
218.99M
77.04M
159.89M
-
-
378.89M
1.86M
17.34M
27.64M
- 157077.00K
- 180346.00K
- 202195.00K
- 202047.00K
148.00K
- 202195.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.09M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
8.19M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11322.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.24M
Other Working Capital:
- 2392.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 55320.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 131.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 26283.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
256.57M
346.82M
603.39M
14.68M
6.52M
6.51M
631.09M
33.16M
936.00K
152.39M
-
-
10.83M
197.31M
-
828.41M
18.43M
4.01M
-
14.23M
82.80M
119.47M
404.77M
76.35M
500.79M
-
620.26M
6.00K
- 811712.00K
- 1695.0K
1.02B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
386.16M
208.14M
828.41M
-
408.79M
152.2M
64.72M
- 5136.00K
33.17M
- 211324.00K
19.55M
-
-
305.69M
113.91M
- 939.00K
90.82M
256.57M
165.75M
- 55320.00K
- 5267.00K
- 60587.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TVTX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.28
$29.37
$30.50
$31.68
$32.90