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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Travelcenters Of America Inc. (XNAS:TA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TA
Name:
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TA)
Sector:
9.07M
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Jonathan M. Pertchik
Total Employees:
14,250
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -248.42% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC.(TA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
54.29
One Month Price Target:
$54.85
Six Month Price Target :
$57.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$61.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$54.04
Price Upper limit ($) :
$54.96
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.92
This week:
$42.27
This month :
$30.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
796.87M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.86M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.61%
-34.55%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$79.17
$67.38
$29.41
$41.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$63.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$61.03
$45.00
$47.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TA
Sharpe Ratio:
7.55%
Comparison:
TA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 163.87% higher than the industry
& ratio is 231.12% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TA
Daily returns:
0.39%
Weekly returns:
1.93%
Monthly returns:
7.74%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 165.82% above industry average
Classification:
TA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.06
Statistical test of Returns:
TA has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.01%
Weekly Volatility:
11.20%
Monthly Volatility:
22.39%
Yearly Volatility:
77.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.81%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.89% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.90%
Weekly VaR:
-22.13%
Monthly VaR:
-44.26%
How Much Can the price of
TA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$35.46
This translates to price declining to:
$8.14
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TA is a 212.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 167.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 20.56% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.84
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.244
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.76
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.553
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.106
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.733
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.23
Beta is 49.67% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is 28.76% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.03%
Sustainable growth rate is -81.83% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.771
Alpha is 250.66% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4906% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TA
Equity cost of capital:
0.158
Equity cost of capital is 21.76% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.06%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.63%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.63%
WACC is -4.24% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$545.56
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.12
Annual revenue growth rate is -148.25% below industry average
EPS:
$5.51
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.90%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -102.55% lower than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.34
-
-
Debt per share
$145.22
EBITDA per share
$16.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
TA
P/E Ratio:
6.96
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.48
P/E ratio is -62.37% lower than main peers & is -67.66% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $118.52
TA is -54.19% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.1
Price to sales ratio is -97.55% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.12
Price to free cash flow: 40.64
Price to free cash flow ratio is -50.45% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-135.36%
Net income growth rate is -71.40% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
299.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
240.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
59.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
47.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -18.00% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.27
Interest coverage ratio is -78.71% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
261.42%
Annual debt growth is 272% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.432
Statistical significance of correlation:
TA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is -9.07% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.063
Kurtosis
9.126
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.312
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-1%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.41%
Operating profit margin is -78.24% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-1%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.25%
Effective tax rate is -1.34% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.20%
Return on equity (ROE) is 687.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.22%
Return on assets (ROA) is -76.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.5x
Current Ratio:
1.54
Current ratio is -18.39% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-2.4
Cash conversion cycle is -103.70% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
568.8K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
17.4K
Each employee generates -93% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
5.7K
Each employee generates -96% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.6K
Each employee generates -98% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
184.8K
Each employee generates -98% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TA
KANDI TECHNOLOGIES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:KNDI)
SUPERIOR GROUP OF COMPANIES, INC. (XNAS:SGC)
SOLO BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:DTC)
AMERICAN OUTDOOR BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:AOUT)
UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPT)
VOXX INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:VOXX)
SEARS HOLDINGS CORPORATION (OTCM:SHLDQ)
CENTURY CASINOS, INC. (XNAS:CNTY)
YUNJI INC. (XNAS:YJ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
8.10B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.35B
- 246284.00K
-
311.18M
352.49M
-
1.01B
1.36B
-
46.93M
96.91M
247.45M
114.68M
80.65M
103.20M
22.96M
80.65M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.23M
Differed Income Tax :
4.80M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
13.78M
Accounts Receivables:
- 90503.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
59.12M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
544.15M
-
544.15M
-
221.41M
238.00M
1.00B
2.50B
22.21M
10.81M
-
-
103.97M
2.63B
-
3.64B
334.45M
120.90M
-
-
196.10M
651.45M
2.16B
107.21M
2.26B
-
2.92B
14.00K
- 66256.00K
- 224.0K
786.80M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.71B
720.33M
3.64B
-
2.28B
1.7B
-
- 49220.00K
- 49220.00K
-
-
-
-
- 1784.00K
- 1784.00K
36.00K
8.15M
544.15M
536.00M
59.12M
- 50053.00K
9.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$72.86
$81.87
$92.00
$103.38
$116.17