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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Travel + Leisure Co. (XNYS:TNL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TNL
Name:
TRAVEL + LEISURE CO. (XNYS:TNL)
Sector:
131.00M
Industry:
Travel Services
CEO:
Mr. Michael D. Brown
Total Employees:
16,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 90.70% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRAVEL + LEISURE CO.(TNL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRAVEL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
41.51
One Month Price Target:
$41.9
Six Month Price Target :
$43.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$46.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$41.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$38.22
This week:
$34.16
This month :
$26.81
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.43B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
83.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.03%
-30.55%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.77
$49.78
$26.25
$33.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$47.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.02
$35.49
$37.00
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TNL
Sharpe Ratio:
1.09%
Comparison:
TNL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 308.10% higher than the industry
& is -52.01% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TNL
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.03%
Yearly returns:
3.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 267.66% above industry average
Classification:
TNL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.82
Statistical test of Returns:
TNL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.88%
Weekly Volatility:
8.68%
Monthly Volatility:
17.36%
Yearly Volatility:
60.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.30% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.92%
Weekly VaR:
-17.71%
Monthly VaR:
-35.42%
How Much Can the price of
TNL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.75
This translates to price declining to:
$6.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TNL is a 149.97% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 114.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.91% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TNL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.947
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.339
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.464
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.136
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.123
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.48
Beta is 14.74% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.849
Beta is -8.19% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.025
Alpha is -80.21% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -157% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TNL
Equity cost of capital:
0.148
Equity cost of capital is -6.56% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-4.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.85%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.85%
WACC is -39.93% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$39.55
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-4.29
Annual revenue growth rate is -63.81% below industry average
EPS:
$3.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-13.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -46.36% lower than the Travel Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.36
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -35.46%
Equity growth rate per share is 6.49% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$63.56
EBITDA per share
$9.29
Valuation Analysis Today of
TNL
P/E Ratio:
9.96
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.55
P/E ratio is -20.68% lower than main peers & is -98.01% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,892.55
TNL is -97.81% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $17.79
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.97
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.05
Price to sales ratio is -88.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-4.29
Price to free cash flow: 6.53
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-47.35%
Net income growth rate is -135.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.57%
Dividend yeild: 3.49%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.45
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.33
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.37
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.21%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.40
2021-12-14--$0.35
2021-06-14--$0.30
2022-03-14--$0.40
2021-09-14--$0.30
2021-03-12--$0.30
Dividend growth rate is -100.70% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-650.55%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-604.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
80.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
74.95%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -2.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.06
Interest coverage ratio is -244.63% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.13%
Annual debt growth is -306% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.639
Statistical significance of correlation:
TNL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.558
Stock price is 14.48% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.558
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.054
Kurtosis
10.825
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.422
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TNL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
19.58%
Operating profit margin is -105.43% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.36%
Effective tax rate is -65.50% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-40.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is -34.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is -143.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
5.2x
Current Ratio:
3.11
Current ratio is 94.74% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
96
Cash conversion cycle is 9.88% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.63%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
197.3K
Each employee generates -31% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
46.4K
Each employee generates -654% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
19.7K
Each employee generates -129% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.8K
Each employee generates -61% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
136.3K
Each employee generates -61% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TNL
CALLAWAY GOLF COMPANY (XNYS:ELY)
MACY'S, INC. (XNYS:M)
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COMPANY (XNYS:GPK)
AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS, INC. (XNYS:AEO)
NORDSTROM, INC. (XNYS:JWN)
KB HOME (XNYS:KBH)
ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:ALSN)
CHOICE HOTELS INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:CHH)
ARD
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.32B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.70B
1.62B
-
447.00M
836.00M
389.00M
123.00M
959.00M
5.00M
192.00M
123.00M
779.00M
649.00M
331.00M
469.00M
133.00M
331.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.00M
Differed Income Tax :
13.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
12.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 23000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 10000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 28000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
58.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
141.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 10000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 7000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
381.00M
-
381.00M
2.41B
1.13B
394.00M
4.31B
743.00M
961.00M
216.00M
-
-
369.00M
2.29B
-
6.60B
67.00M
-
-
391.00M
927.00M
1.39B
5.33B
-
6.03B
-
7.41B
2.00M
1.60B
- 45000.0K
- 2379000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.66B
- 819000.00K
6.59B
-
5.33B
4.9B
-
1.00M
- 16000.00K
- 465000.00K
-
- 45000.00K
- 35000.00K
466.00M
- 79000.00K
4.00M
50.00M
547.00M
497.00M
141.00M
- 10000.00K
131.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TNL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.41
$52.82
$58.84
$65.56
$73.03