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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Transunion (XNYS:TRU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TRU
Name:
TRANSUNION (XNYS:TRU)
Sector:
- 47400.00K
Industry:
Consulting Services
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Cartwright
Total Employees:
10,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -94.91% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRANSUNION(TRU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSULTING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
73.8
One Month Price Target:
$74.34
Six Month Price Target :
$77.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$80.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$73.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$74.1
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$70.27
This week:
$65.91
This month :
$58.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
14.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
192.50M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.45%
-13.88%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$90.19
$82.73
$57.41
$64.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$80.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.71
$67.28
$68.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TRU
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.05%
Comparison:
TRU, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -102.25% lower than the industry
& is -102.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TRU
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.15%
Yearly returns:
14.72%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -87.42% below industry average
Classification:
TRU, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
TRU has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.33%
Weekly Volatility:
5.22%
Monthly Volatility:
10.43%
Yearly Volatility:
36.14%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.03% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.78%
Weekly VaR:
-10.70%
Monthly VaR:
-21.39%
How Much Can the price of
TRU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-74.11%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.90
This translates to price declining to:
$19.11
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TRU is a 50.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 29.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TRU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.999
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.412
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.642
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.874
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.756
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.353
Beta is -3.87% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.889
Beta is 46.27% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.45%
Sustainable growth rate is 3.73% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.102
Alpha is -286.25% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -650% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TRU
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is 30.50% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.95%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.77%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.77%
WACC is 6.52% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.29
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.43
Annual revenue growth rate is 15.26% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -101.79% lower than the Consulting Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.21
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 63.11%
Equity growth rate per share is 447.53% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$30.92
EBITDA per share
$10.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
TRU
P/E Ratio:
59
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.99
P/E ratio is 90.38% higher than main peers & is 205.23% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $131.43
TRU is -43.85% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.32
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.16
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.53
Price to sales ratio is 32.30% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.43
Price to free cash flow: 33.37
Price to free cash flow ratio is 31.34% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
387.49%
Net income growth rate is 272.01% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.45%
Dividend yeild: 0.51%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Expected next dividend best case: $0.10
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.09
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.67%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/11/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 13/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-26--$0.10
2021-11-23--$0.10
2021-05-25--$0.10
2022-03-09--$0.10
2021-08-24--$0.10
2021-03-10--$0.08
Dividend growth rate is -58.97% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
147.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
124.32%
Debt to assets ratio:
48.79%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.18%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -16.08% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.48
Interest coverage ratio is -24.23% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
85.00%
Annual debt growth is 257% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.72%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.749
Statistical significance of correlation:
TRU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.51
Stock price is 46.81% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.51
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.015
Kurtosis
5.826
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.641
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TRU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
266%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
19.20%
Operating profit margin is 69.08% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
266%
Effective Tax Rate:
30.40%
Effective tax rate is 54.12% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
32.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is 56.48% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 45.24% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.79
Current ratio is 8.77% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-29.1
Cash conversion cycle is -240.54% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.60%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
307.5K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
194.5K
Each employee generates 136% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
128.2K
Each employee generates 171% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.6K
Each employee generates -48% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
983.2K
Each employee generates -48% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TRU
XYLEM INC. (XNYS:XYL)
CNH Industrial NV (XNYS:CNHI)
GENERAC HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:GNRC)
UNITED RENTALS, INC. (XNYS:URI)
HEICO CORPORATION (XNYS:HEI)
HEI-A
INGERSOLL RAND INC. (XNYS:IR)
WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNYS:WAB)
JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC. (XNYS:J)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�29%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.05B
2.09B
-
-
1.08B
-
411.50M
1.49B
3.50M
137.00M
411.50M
1.98B
602.10M
1.31B
420.00M
127.70M
1.31B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
128.80M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4500.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
20.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 195200.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 32600.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
9.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
11.20M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 14800.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 53000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.08B
3.00M
1.08B
594.50M
-
489.50M
2.17B
379.30M
5.50B
3.70B
244.60M
-
196.40M
10.03B
-
12.20B
260.30M
152.50M
362.00M
128.30M
667.50M
1.21B
5.95B
81.80M
6.85B
-
8.06B
2.00M
2.28B
- 184700.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.53B
4.04B
12.10B
247.60M
6.10B
5.0B
37.10M
- 60300.00K
- 91000.00K
- 428600.00K
8.70M
-
- 19000.00K
- 28700.00K
- 467600.00K
1.80M
- 545600.00K
1.30B
1.84B
11.20M
- 58600.00K
- 47400.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TRU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$80.65
$220.58
$239.86
$260.83
$283.62