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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tractor Supply Company (XNAS:TSCO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TSCO
Name:
TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY (XNAS:TSCO)
Sector:
- 53321.00K
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Harry Lawton
Total Employees:
22,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -235.78% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY(TSCO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
187.6
One Month Price Target:
$188.55
Six Month Price Target :
$193.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$198.98
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$187.14
Price Upper limit ($) :
$188.51
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$179.57
This week:
$169.65
This month :
$151.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
20.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
111.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.64%
-12.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$224.79
$207.38
$150.41
$167.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$201.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$197.99
$173.44
$177.21
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TSCO
Sharpe Ratio:
5.15%
Comparison:
TSCO, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 80.09% higher than the industry
& ratio is 125.99% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TSCO
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.60%
Monthly returns:
2.38%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.12% below industry average
Classification:
TSCO, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.44
Statistical test of Returns:
TSCO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.14%
Weekly Volatility:
4.79%
Monthly Volatility:
9.58%
Yearly Volatility:
33.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.63% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.28%
Weekly VaR:
-9.57%
Monthly VaR:
-19.13%
How Much Can the price of
TSCO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-66.28%
This translates to price declining to:
$158.43
This translates to price declining to:
$63.26
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TSCO is a 35.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 15.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -48.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TSCO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.624
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.882
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.356
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.643
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.505
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.514
Beta is -40.40% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is -36.87% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
36.42%
Sustainable growth rate is 9.67% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.193
Alpha is -12.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1226% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TSCO
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is -27.90% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.53%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.53%
WACC is -32.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$116.78
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.63
Annual revenue growth rate is 135.85% above the industry average
EPS:
$8.71
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
22.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -36.51% lower than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.34
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 71.26%
Equity growth rate per share is 38.95% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$32.01
EBITDA per share
$14.49
Valuation Analysis Today of
TSCO
P/E Ratio:
20.72
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1378.1
P/E ratio is -98.50% lower than main peers & is -3.69% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $187.35
TSCO is 0.13% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.61
Price to sales ratio is -60.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.63
Price to free cash flow: 56.17
Price to free cash flow ratio is 78.20% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
97.41%
Net income growth rate is -120.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.32%
Dividend yeild: 1.54%
Previous Dividend: $0.92
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.92
Previous Dividend: $2.88
Expected next dividend best case: $1.09
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.75
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 12.12%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-24--$0.92
2021-11-19--$0.52
2021-05-21--$0.52
2022-02-17--$0.92
2021-08-20--$0.52
2021-02-19--$0.52
Dividend growth rate is -5524.01% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
198.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
196.17%
Debt to assets ratio:
46.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
45.68%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -36.11% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
60.78
Interest coverage ratio is 145.43% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
204.40%
Annual debt growth is 191% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.543
Statistical significance of correlation:
TSCO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is 14.20% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.015
Kurtosis
5.942
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.681
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TSCO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
140%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.19%
Operating profit margin is 56.68% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
140%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.49%
Effective tax rate is -0.29% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
56.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is 3838.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is 40.24% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
1.44
Current ratio is -23.70% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-27.2
Cash conversion cycle is -142.07% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.23%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
589.2K
Each employee generates -20% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
73.1K
Each employee generates -70% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
45.6K
Each employee generates -69% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.4K
Each employee generates -106% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
205.4K
Each employee generates -106% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TSCO
EXPEDIA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:EXPE)
ETSY, INC. (XNAS:ETSY)
Li Auto Inc. (XNAS:LI)
POOL CORPORATION (XNAS:POOL)
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:CZR)
LKQ CORPORATION (XNAS:LKQ)
Trip.com Group Limited (XNAS:TCOM)
OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLPX)
ROSS STORES, INC. (XNAS:ROST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�8%
Hold�79%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
12.96B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.41B
4.55B
-
-
2.94B
-
287.75M
3.23B
-
26.46M
287.75M
1.61B
1.32B
1.00B
1.29B
291.00M
1.00B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
77.65M
Differed Income Tax :
39.92M
Stock Based Compensation :
12.32M
Change in Working Capital :
- 258373.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 17422.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
326.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
59.07M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/26/22
2022
Q1
405.43M
-
405.43M
9.03M
2.57B
185.63M
3.17B
4.40B
-
-
-
-
63.17M
4.52B
-
7.69B
1.34B
363.82M
-
-
494.20M
2.20B
3.55B
106.48M
3.70B
-
5.90B
1.41M
5.03B
7.3M
- 3247732.00K
March 26, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.64B
1.79B
7.69B
-
3.92B
3.5B
-
- 112288.00K
- 112288.00K
- 1197.00K
7.91M
- 322622.00K
- 103467.00K
-
- 419376.00K
-
- 472598.00K
405.43M
878.03M
59.07M
- 112387.00K
- 53321.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TSCO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$199.97
$4,084.93
$4,332.70
$4,595.49
$4,874.23