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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Topbuild Corp. (XNYS:BLD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLD
Name:
TOPBUILD CORP. (XNYS:BLD)
Sector:
71.07M
Industry:
Engineering & Construction
CEO:
Mr. Gerald Volas
Total Employees:
13,006
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 43.35% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TOPBUILD CORP.(BLD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
179.75
One Month Price Target:
$181.33
Six Month Price Target :
$189.26
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$198.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$178.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$181.06
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$167.05
This week:
$151.34
This month :
$122.94
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.70B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.38M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.5%
-25.68%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$238.65
$211.32
$120.85
$148.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$202.43
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$196.59
$157.00
$162.91
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLD
Sharpe Ratio:
3.62%
Comparison:
BLD, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -8.82% lower than the industry
& ratio is 58.91% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLD
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.68%
Monthly returns:
2.72%
Yearly returns:
37.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -13.01% below industry average
Classification:
BLD, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
BLD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.51%
Weekly Volatility:
7.84%
Monthly Volatility:
15.69%
Yearly Volatility:
54.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -90.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.07%
Weekly VaR:
-15.80%
Monthly VaR:
-31.61%
How Much Can the price of
BLD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$132.32
This translates to price declining to:
$26.96
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLD is a 123.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 91.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.01% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.074
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.519
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.93
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.197
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.091
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.26
Beta is 24.97% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.325
Beta is 18.82% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.89%
Sustainable growth rate is 58.38% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.187
Alpha is -26.06% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1189% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLD
Equity cost of capital:
0.139
Equity cost of capital is 13.97% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.23%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.62%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.62%
WACC is 7.14% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$120.83
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.43
Annual revenue growth rate is 8.34% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.95
-
-
Debt per share
$49.00
EBITDA per share
$19.75
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLD
P/E Ratio:
13.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
44.13
P/E ratio is -68.97% lower than main peers & is -52.79% lower than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.49
Price to sales ratio is -75.88% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.43
Price to free cash flow: 18.06
Price to free cash flow ratio is -26.79% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
155.09%
Net income growth rate is -2250.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
93.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
91.71%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.58% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.53
Interest coverage ratio is -23.84% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
112.00%
Annual debt growth is -30% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.661
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.523
Stock price is 26.42% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.523
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.024
Kurtosis
5.943
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.548
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.92%
Operating profit margin is -201.15% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.80%
Effective tax rate is 24.62% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is 90.12% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is 111.05% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.65
Current ratio is -41.46% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
15.5
Cash conversion cycle is -67.22% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
300.8K
Each employee generates -50% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
49.2K
Each employee generates 31% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
29.1K
Each employee generates -4563% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.5K
Each employee generates -185% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
236.8K
Each employee generates -185% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLD
OSHKOSH CORPORATION (XNYS:OSK)
CAE Inc. (XNYS:CAE)
Regal Rexnord Corporation (XNYS:RRX)
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:HII)
NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC (XNYS:NLSN)
ACUITY BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:AYI)
Vertiv Holdings Co (XNYS:VRT)
DUN & BRADSTREET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:DNB)
DONALDSON COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:DCI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.91B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.80B
1.11B
-
-
563.34M
-
-
563.34M
-
34.51M
94.37M
639.49M
544.49M
378.88M
510.62M
131.73M
378.88M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
30.50M
Differed Income Tax :
- 81.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.73M
Change in Working Capital :
- 63762.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.39M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
89.48M
Investments in PP&E:
- 18413.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 13967.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
126.55M
-
126.55M
735.45M
390.06M
29.10M
1.28B
433.20M
1.96B
669.80M
-
-
13.10M
3.08B
-
4.36B
473.92M
96.63M
65.10M
15.93M
191.45M
777.92M
1.59B
54.33M
1.89B
-
2.66B
393.00K
1.32B
- 3416.0K
384.88M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.37B
1.70B
4.36B
-
1.68B
1.6B
-
253.00K
- 32127.00K
- 9634.00K
-
- 50000.00K
-
- 10873.00K
- 70507.00K
- 75.00K
- 13226.00K
126.55M
139.78M
89.48M
- 18413.00K
71.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$149.08
$164.85
$182.30
$201.58
$222.91