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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Tivity Health, Inc. (XNAS:TVTY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TVTY
Name:
TIVITY HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:TVTY)
Sector:
34.30M
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Robert Greczyn
Total Employees:
380
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 284.46% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF TIVITY HEALTH, INC.(TVTY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.48
One Month Price Target:
$32.86
Six Month Price Target :
$34.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.03
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.34
This week:
$25.46
This month :
$18.45
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.62B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
49.93M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.18%
-45.49%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.03
$40.27
$17.93
$24.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$38.07
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.63
$26.87
$28.33
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TVTY
Sharpe Ratio:
3.96%
Comparison:
TVTY, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 78.22% higher than the industry
& ratio is 73.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TVTY
Daily returns:
0.20%
Weekly returns:
1.00%
Monthly returns:
3.98%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 107.66% above industry average
Classification:
TVTY, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.19
Statistical test of Returns:
TVTY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.80%
Weekly Volatility:
10.74%
Monthly Volatility:
21.47%
Yearly Volatility:
74.38%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.66%
Weekly VaR:
-21.60%
Monthly VaR:
-43.21%
How Much Can the price of
TVTY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.81
This translates to price declining to:
$4.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TVTY is a 204.97% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 161.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 43.92% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TVTY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.08
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.046
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.479
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.633
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.847
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.084
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.254
Beta is 66.14% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is 95.20% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
231.08%
Sustainable growth rate is 542.06% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.304
Alpha is 141.93% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1933% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TVTY
Equity cost of capital:
0.174
Equity cost of capital is 66.53% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.96%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.29%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.29%
WACC is 41.42% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.03
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
12.68
Annual revenue growth rate is -176.63% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$7.65
EBITDA per share
$3.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
TVTY
P/E Ratio:
18.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
42.21
P/E ratio is -55.83% lower than main peers & is -73.50% lower than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.24
Price to sales ratio is 52.97% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
12.68
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -30.44% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-12.70%
Net income growth rate is -108.27% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
298.59%
Net debt to equity ratio:
232.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
64.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.96%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 18.92% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.03
Interest coverage ratio is -74.73% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.43%
Annual debt growth is -117% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.26%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.382
Statistical significance of correlation:
TVTY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is -11.57% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.051
Kurtosis
27.223
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.302
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TVTY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
161%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.64%
Operating profit margin is -487.01% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
161%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.34%
Effective tax rate is 6.92% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
67.50%
Return on equity (ROE) is 278.41% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
14.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is 232.18% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.8x
Current Ratio:
2.47
Current ratio is 34.42% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
14.4
Cash conversion cycle is -46.91% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates 278% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
410.5K
Each employee generates 647% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
227.3K
Each employee generates 681% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
90.3K
Each employee generates 1214% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates 1214% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TVTY
STOKE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:STOK)
INNOVIVA, INC. (XNAS:INVA)
NURIX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NRIX)
PLIANT THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PLRX)
Tabula Rasa HealthCare, Inc. (XNAS:TRHC)
ESSA Pharma Inc. (XNAS:EPIX)
Affimed NV (XNAS:AFMD)
RADNET, INC. (XNAS:RDNT)
Repare Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:RPTX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
500.68M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
299.38M
201.30M
-
43.00M
51.08M
8.08M
11.82M
62.90M
-
31.00M
11.82M
155.99M
138.40M
86.36M
114.89M
26.81M
86.36M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.21M
Differed Income Tax :
2.27M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.92M
Change in Working Capital :
11.80M
Accounts Receivables:
4.72M
Other Working Capital:
6.24M
Other Non-Cash Items:
17.24M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
37.02M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2715.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1390.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
92.08M
27.37M
119.44M
58.01M
-
13.73M
191.18M
34.53M
334.68M
29.05M
-
-
5.72M
403.98M
-
595.17M
25.38M
7.39M
2.77M
3.20M
41.30M
77.26M
382.03M
137.00K
389.96M
-
467.22M
50.00K
- 358590.00K
- 1444.0K
487.93M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
362.28M
127.95M
595.17M
-
389.42M
297.3M
-
-
- 4105.00K
- 1000.00K
-
-
-
34.00K
- 966.00K
-
31.94M
92.08M
60.13M
37.02M
- 2715.00K
34.30M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TVTY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$27.77
$31.66
$36.09
$41.14
$46.90