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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Thor Industries, Inc. (XNYS:THO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
THO
Name:
THOR INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:THO)
Sector:
181.68M
Industry:
Recreational Vehicles
CEO:
Mr. Robert Martin
Total Employees:
31,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -117.92% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THOR INDUSTRIES, INC.(THO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
77.88
One Month Price Target:
$78.62
Six Month Price Target :
$82.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$86.76
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$77.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$78.42
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$72.21
This week:
$65.2
This month :
$52.53
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
54.53M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.07%
-26.8%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$104.18
$92.08
$51.58
$63.68
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$88.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.56
$67.59
$70.20
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
THO
Sharpe Ratio:
2.06%
Comparison:
THO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -13.97% lower than the industry
& is -9.58% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
THO
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.65%
Yearly returns:
23.23%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -14.52% below industry average
Classification:
THO, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
THO has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.58%
Weekly Volatility:
8.02%
Monthly Volatility:
16.03%
Yearly Volatility:
55.53%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.81%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.52% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.28%
Weekly VaR:
-16.28%
Monthly VaR:
-32.55%
How Much Can the price of
THO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$56.20
This translates to price declining to:
$11.68
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
THO is a 129.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 96.84% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.05% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
THO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.01
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.428
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.121
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.135
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.074
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.262
Beta is 34.47% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.654
Beta is 2.64% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
24.55%
Sustainable growth rate is -18.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.051
Alpha is -41.97% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 323% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
THO
Equity cost of capital:
0.148
Equity cost of capital is 2.06% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.17%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.17%
WACC is 17.39% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$294.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.31
Annual revenue growth rate is -30.74% below industry average
EPS:
$19.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
88.49%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 137.86% higher than the Recreational Vehicles industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$16.83
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 10.77%
Equity growth rate per share is -87.75% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$39.75
EBITDA per share
$32.70
Valuation Analysis Today of
THO
P/E Ratio:
3.98
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.39
P/E ratio is -65.06% lower than main peers & is -66.91% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $235.35
THO is -66.91% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $30.03
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.20
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.26
Price to sales ratio is -77.92% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.31
Price to free cash flow: 4.63
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
45.95%
Net income growth rate is -94.44% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 2.18%
Previous Dividend: $0.43
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.43
Previous Dividend: $1.70
Expected next dividend best case: $0.44
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.42
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.41
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.74%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/05/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-05--$0.43
2021-10-21--$0.43
2021-03-31--$0.41
2021-12-29--$0.43
2021-07-01--$0.41
2020-12-31--$0.41
Dividend growth rate is -104.10% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
67.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
58.10%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.28%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.45%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -54.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.39
Interest coverage ratio is -18.12% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.56%
Annual debt growth is -116% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.618
Statistical significance of correlation:
THO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.579
Stock price is 6.77% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.579
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.061
Kurtosis
7.049
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.773
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
THO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
68%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.53%
Operating profit margin is 10.22% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
68%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.56%
Effective tax rate is 14.06% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
33.70%
Return on equity (ROE) is -4.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
14.18%
Return on assets (ROA) is 26.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.68
Current ratio is -21.63% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
10.7
Cash conversion cycle is -60.11% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.64%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
518.8K
Each employee generates 3% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
57.5K
Each employee generates -21% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
35.1K
Each employee generates -25% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.9K
Each employee generates -238% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
144.0K
Each employee generates -238% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
THO
HANESBRANDS INC. (XNYS:HBI)
INTERNATIONAL GAME TECHNOLOGY PLC (XNYS:IGT)
ARAD LTD. (XTAE:ARD)
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COMPANY (XNYS:GPK)
SONOCO PRODUCTS COMPANY (XNYS:SON)
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (XNYS:HOG)
LEGGETT & PLATT, INCORPORATED (XNYS:LEG)
CHARGEPOINT HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:CHPT)
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (XNYS:AMBP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�33%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
16.08B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
13.35B
2.73B
-
-
1.10B
-
106.64M
1.20B
989.00K
87.46M
273.43M
1.78B
1.53B
1.09B
1.42B
335.35M
1.09B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
75.90M
Differed Income Tax :
- 8064.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.96M
Change in Working Capital :
- 87381.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.60M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.28M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
256.26M
Investments in PP&E:
- 74580.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 33881.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/31/22
2022
Q1
305.24M
-
305.24M
1.16B
1.68B
54.08M
3.20B
1.22B
1.89B
1.24B
-
1.60M
119.83M
4.46B
-
7.67B
1.00B
11.65M
70.37M
-
890.13M
1.90B
2.17B
195.11M
2.51B
-
4.41B
6.61M
3.23B
- 55703.0K
43.38M
January 31, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
14.55B
3.23B
7.64B
-
2.18B
1.9B
-
511.00K
- 107950.00K
- 38308.00K
-
-
-
- 114529.00K
- 152837.00K
- 4447.00K
- 30994.00K
305.24M
336.24M
256.26M
- 74580.00K
181.68M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
THO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$87.19
$218.28
$243.18
$270.92
$301.82