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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (XNYS:TMO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TMO
Name:
THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC. (XNYS:TMO)
Sector:
1.56B
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Marc Casper
Total Employees:
130,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -254.26% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC.(TMO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
543.55
One Month Price Target:
$546.16
Six Month Price Target :
$559.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$574.89
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$542.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$545.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$522.08
This week:
$495.53
This month :
$447.52
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
213.58B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
391.79M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.47%
-8.29%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$643.07
$596.63
$444.03
$490.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$581.52
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$571.60
$505.46
$515.50
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TMO
Sharpe Ratio:
4.49%
Comparison:
TMO, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 78.44% higher than the industry
& ratio is 97.14% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TMO
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.49%
Monthly returns:
1.95%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -16.26% below industry average
Classification:
TMO, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
TMO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.97%
Weekly Volatility:
4.41%
Monthly Volatility:
8.81%
Yearly Volatility:
30.53%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.60% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.95%
Weekly VaR:
-8.83%
Monthly VaR:
-17.67%
How Much Can the price of
TMO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-61.20%
This translates to price declining to:
$464.72
This translates to price declining to:
$210.89
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TMO is a 24.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 6.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -48.95% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TMO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.971
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.373
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.511
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.671
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.572
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.616
Beta is 39.23% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -27.38% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
19.32%
Sustainable growth rate is -63.43% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.144
Alpha is -13.93% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 914% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TMO
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is -19.71% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.38%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.64%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.30%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.30%
WACC is -27.80% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$104.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.18
Annual revenue growth rate is -46.59% below industry average
EPS:
$19.20
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
28.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 4.99% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$17.70
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 50.75%
Equity growth rate per share is -2918.56% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$80.12
EBITDA per share
$30.56
Valuation Analysis Today of
TMO
P/E Ratio:
28.92
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
72.25
P/E ratio is -59.98% lower than main peers & is -22.22% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $713.79
TMO is -23.85% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $71.60
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $28.76
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.18
Price to sales ratio is -45.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.18
Price to free cash flow: 30.71
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
166.92%
Net income growth rate is -173.03% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.35%
Dividend yeild: 0.21%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.33
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.25
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.94%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.30
2021-12-14--$0.26
2021-06-14--$0.26
2022-03-15--$0.30
2021-09-14--$0.26
2021-03-15--$0.26
Dividend growth rate is -140.31% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
76.64%
Net debt to equity ratio:
74.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.89%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -30.35% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
21.89
Interest coverage ratio is -178.04% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
60.43%
Annual debt growth is -42% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.95%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.618
Statistical significance of correlation:
TMO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is 26.77% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.011
Kurtosis
3.117
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.033
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TMO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
194%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.83%
Operating profit margin is -121.18% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
194%
Effective Tax Rate:
11.52%
Effective tax rate is -39.96% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.56%
Return on equity (ROE) is -11.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.20%
Return on assets (ROA) is -103.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.56
Current ratio is -68.70% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
43.8
Cash conversion cycle is -11.79% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
316.3K
Each employee generates -15% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
92.1K
Each employee generates 207% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
58.5K
Each employee generates 266% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.0K
Each employee generates -652% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
569.0K
Each employee generates -652% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 19.05%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1158.17% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
TMO
ABBOTT LABORATORIES (XNYS:ABT)
ABBVIE INC. (XNYS:ABBV)
Novo Nordisk A/S (XNYS:NVO)
DANAHER CORPORATION (XNYS:DHR)
MERCK & CO., INC. (XNYS:MRK)
Novartis Inc. (XNYS:NVS)
ASTRAZENECA PLC (XNAS:AZN)
PFIZER INC. (XLON:0Q1N)
MEDTRONIC PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:MDT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�33%
Buy�25%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
41.12B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
21.23B
19.89B
1.45B
-
8.46B
-
-
9.91B
49.00M
547.00M
2.83B
11.97B
9.80B
7.60B
8.63B
994.00M
7.60B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
859.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 339000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
78.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 875000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
259.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.20B
Investments in PP&E:
- 640000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 40000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
2.75B
-
2.75B
8.95B
5.48B
1.59B
18.78B
8.45B
41.72B
19.38B
-
-
4.42B
73.97B
-
92.75B
2.67B
1.87B
-
2.87B
4.67B
12.07B
31.39B
4.66B
39.55B
-
51.62B
440.00M
37.53B
- 2343000.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
31.14B
40.96B
92.57B
-
33.26B
30.5B
-
10.00M
- 670000.00K
- 1634000.00K
-
- 2000000.00K
- 103000.00K
592.00M
- 3145000.00K
- 99000.00K
- 1712000.00K
2.78B
4.49B
2.20B
- 640000.00K
1.56B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TMO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$577.76
$1,038.36
$1,098.22
$1,161.54
$1,228.50