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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The York Water Company (XNAS:YORW) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
YORW
Name:
THE YORK WATER COMPANY (XNAS:YORW)
Sector:
- 2171.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Water
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Hand
Total Employees:
110
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -122.65% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE YORK WATER COMPANY(YORW) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED WATER INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
43.63
One Month Price Target:
$43.74
Six Month Price Target :
$44.3
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$44.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$43.46
Price Upper limit ($) :
$43.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$41.41
This week:
$38.66
This month :
$33.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
619.18M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.27M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.96%
-11.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.94
$49.23
$33.32
$38.03
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$47.69
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.69
$39.55
$40.57
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
YORW
Sharpe Ratio:
0.68%
Comparison:
YORW, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -59.27% lower than the industry
& is -70.17% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
YORW
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.13%
Monthly returns:
0.52%
Yearly returns:
11.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -44.38% below industry average
Classification:
YORW, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.83
Statistical test of Returns:
YORW has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.49%
Weekly Volatility:
5.57%
Monthly Volatility:
11.14%
Yearly Volatility:
38.60%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -88.41% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.09%
Weekly VaR:
-11.38%
Monthly VaR:
-22.77%
How Much Can the price of
YORW
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-78.87%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.97
This translates to price declining to:
$9.22
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
YORW is a 60.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.10% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
YORW
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.46
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.587
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.831
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.239
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.59
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.93
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.371
Beta is 22.66% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.545
Beta is -16.49% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.64%
Sustainable growth rate is -0.89% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.001
Alpha is -101.84% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -5% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
YORW
Equity cost of capital:
0.063
Equity cost of capital is -8.94% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.67%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.11%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.11%
WACC is -16.36% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -39.06% below industry average
EPS:
$1.31
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.41%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -55.62% lower than the Utilities�Regulated Water industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.13%
Equity growth rate per share is -38.08% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$10.09
EBITDA per share
$2.17
Valuation Analysis Today of
YORW
P/E Ratio:
33.04
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.31
P/E ratio is 20.98% higher than main peers & is 17.98% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $36.68
YORW is 18.93% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $34.69
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
11.06
Price to sales ratio is 23.90% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.03
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
25.71%
Net income growth rate is -51.71% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.89%
Dividend yeild: 1.77%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.77
Expected next dividend best case: $0.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.81%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.20
2021-12-30--$0.20
2021-06-29--$0.19
2022-02-25--$0.20
2021-09-29--$0.19
2021-02-25--$0.19
Dividend growth rate is -89.66% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
93.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
98.11%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.31%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.64
Interest coverage ratio is 196.19% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
12.53%
Annual debt growth is 33% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.44%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.512
Statistical significance of correlation:
YORW has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.56
Stock price is -8.51% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.56
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.019
Kurtosis
17.674
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.162
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
YORW
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
311%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
41.47%
Operating profit margin is 67.24% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
311%
Effective Tax Rate:
3.37%
Effective tax rate is -71.29% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is 5.61% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is 8.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
0.57
Current ratio is -17.42% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-177.4
Cash conversion cycle is -260.89% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.26%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
511.6K
Each employee generates -5% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
281.4K
Each employee generates -4% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
155.8K
Each employee generates 1% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 19.7K
Each employee generates 139% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.2M
Each employee generates 139% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
YORW
CADIZ INC. (XNAS:CDZI)
SPKEP
ARTESIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:ARTNA)
SPKE
IPLDP
Pure Cycle Corporation (XNAS:PCYO)
CONSOLIDATED WATER CO. LTD. (XNAS:CWCO)
RGC RESOURCES, INC. (XNAS:RGCO)
VIDLER WATER RESOURCES, INC. (XNAS:VWTR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Sell
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
56.28M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.47M
43.81M
-
10.61M
10.61M
-
10.47M
21.08M
-
4.05M
9.17M
30.95M
23.34M
17.14M
17.74M
597.00K
17.14M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.48M
Differed Income Tax :
- 230.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
45.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 836.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 161.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
15.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.33M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7504.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.00K
-
1.00K
8.37M
2.11M
1.51M
11.99M
390.60M
-
-
-
-
66.32M
456.92M
-
468.91M
7.58M
7.50M
-
-
6.02M
21.10M
144.00M
85.10M
293.40M
-
314.49M
88.73M
65.70M
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
33.55M
154.42M
468.91M
-
151.50M
151.5M
-
-
- 7504.00K
- 8289.00K
450.00K
-
- 2551.00K
12.56M
2.17M
-
-
1.00K
1.00K
5.33M
- 7504.00K
- 2171.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
YORW
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$48.93
$50.43
$51.97
$53.56
$55.20