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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Toro Company (XNYS:TTC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TTC
Name:
THE TORO COMPANY (XNYS:TTC)
Sector:
- 101946.00K
Industry:
Tools & Accessories
CEO:
Mr. Richard Olson
Total Employees:
9,520
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 411.66% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE TORO COMPANY(TTC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TOOLS & ACCESSORIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
82.67
One Month Price Target:
$83.03
Six Month Price Target :
$84.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$86.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$82.42
Price Upper limit ($) :
$82.96
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$79.46
This week:
$75.49
This month :
$68.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.61B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
104.20M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.94%
-14.18%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.57
$90.75
$67.77
$74.59
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$88.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.08
$76.79
$78.26
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TTC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.73%
Comparison:
TTC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -45.58% lower than the industry
& is -68.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TTC
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.45%
Yearly returns:
10.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -48.48% below industry average
Classification:
TTC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
TTC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.90%
Weekly Volatility:
4.25%
Monthly Volatility:
8.50%
Yearly Volatility:
29.46%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.92%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -51.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.88%
Weekly VaR:
-8.68%
Monthly VaR:
-17.36%
How Much Can the price of
TTC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-60.15%
This translates to price declining to:
$70.19
This translates to price declining to:
$32.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TTC is a 22.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 4.98% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.01% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TTC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.597
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.844
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.435
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.642
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.602
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.243
Beta is -38.12% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.226
Beta is -37.27% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
24.46%
Sustainable growth rate is 98.99% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.030
Alpha is 204.94% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -189% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TTC
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is -27.10% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.96%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.96%
WACC is -34.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$39.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.69
Annual revenue growth rate is 316.85% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.34
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -538.80% lower than the Tools & Accessories industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.60
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 31.04%
Equity growth rate per share is 159.50% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.14
EBITDA per share
$5.21
Valuation Analysis Today of
TTC
P/E Ratio:
22.7
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.16
P/E ratio is 18.50% higher than main peers & is -34.42% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $115.61
TTC is -28.50% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $35.20
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.25
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.09
Price to sales ratio is -28.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.69
Price to free cash flow: 137.43
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
49.36%
Net income growth rate is 276.80% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.81%
Dividend yeild: 1.41%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.93%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 20/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-21--$0.30
2021-12-27--$0.30
2021-06-21--$0.26
2022-04-05--$0.30
2021-10-05--$0.26
2021-04-01--$0.26
Dividend growth rate is -19.65% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
94.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
87.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.50%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.13%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -43.57% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.7
Interest coverage ratio is 55.86% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.62%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.688
Statistical significance of correlation:
TTC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.678
Stock price is 1.41% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.678
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.012
Kurtosis
6.544
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.815
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TTC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
129%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.12%
Operating profit margin is 64.18% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
129%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.66%
Effective tax rate is 8.05% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
31.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is 122.72% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is 95.24% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.46
Current ratio is -30.72% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.2
Cash conversion cycle is -102.82% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.46%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
432.7K
Each employee generates 48% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
57.1K
Each employee generates 28% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
37.5K
Each employee generates 53% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 10.7K
Each employee generates -3347% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
190.7K
Each employee generates -3347% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TTC
AQUA AMERICA UNT (XNYS:WTRU)
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:AFGE)
AECOM (XNYS:ACM)
DTE ENERGY UNT (XNYS:DTP)
GXO LOGISTICS, INC. (XNYS:GXO)
TFI International Inc. (XNYS:TFII)
HUBBELL INCORPORATED (XNYS:HUBB)
SITEONE LANDSCAPE SUPPLY, INC. (XNYS:SITE)
LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:LII)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/29/22
Revenue:
4.12B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.79B
1.33B
-
-
868.05M
-
-
868.05M
-
29.05M
75.13M
543.13M
458.30M
357.06M
438.95M
81.89M
357.06M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.94M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.23M
Change in Working Capital :
- 186419.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3302.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 90043.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 11903.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 401494.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/28/22
2022
Q1
192.96M
-
192.96M
366.27M
832.07M
45.96M
1.44B
585.86M
576.94M
600.80M
24.12M
3.94M
24.13M
1.82B
-
3.25B
474.48M
115.84M
-
-
395.74M
986.06M
1.06B
39.94M
1.15B
-
2.13B
104.53M
1.04B
- 25614.0K
-
January 28, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
3.66B
1.12B
3.25B
-
1.17B
980.0M
-
26.00K
- 413371.00K
-
-
- 75000.00K
- 31469.00K
399.77M
293.30M
- 2539.00K
- 212653.00K
192.96M
405.61M
- 90043.00K
- 11903.00K
- 101946.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TTC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$92.74
$97.54
$102.58
$107.88
$113.45