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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Tjx Companies, Inc. (XNYS:TJX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TJX
Name:
THE TJX COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:TJX)
Sector:
- 658020.00K
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Mr. Ernie Herrman
Total Employees:
340,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 18.55% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE TJX COMPANIES, INC.(TJX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
63.52
One Month Price Target:
$63.84
Six Month Price Target :
$65.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$67.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$63.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$63.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$60.34
This week:
$56.41
This month :
$49.3
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
73.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.16B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.9%
-20.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.28
$71.52
$48.76
$55.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$69.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$67.87
$57.71
$59.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TJX
Sharpe Ratio:
1.18%
Comparison:
TJX, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 69.98% higher than the industry
& is -48.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TJX
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.19%
Monthly returns:
0.76%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 2.34% above industry average
Classification:
TJX, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
TJX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.46%
Weekly Volatility:
5.49%
Monthly Volatility:
10.98%
Yearly Volatility:
38.05%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.93% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.01%
Weekly VaR:
-11.20%
Monthly VaR:
-22.39%
How Much Can the price of
TJX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-77.56%
This translates to price declining to:
$51.22
This translates to price declining to:
$14.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TJX is a 58.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 35.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -36.70% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TJX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.714
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.01
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.349
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.792
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.781
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.477
Beta is -38.97% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is -34.01% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
22.87%
Sustainable growth rate is -43.98% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.003
Alpha is -92.97% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -16% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TJX
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is -25.45% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.61%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.62%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.49%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.49%
WACC is -27.42% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$42.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
12.01
Annual revenue growth rate is -175.48% below industry average
EPS:
$2.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.86%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -86.38% lower than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.46
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -62.03%
Equity growth rate per share is 116.84% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$11.36
EBITDA per share
$4.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
TJX
P/E Ratio:
22.66
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.9
P/E ratio is -33.15% lower than main peers & is 64.86% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.94
TJX is 67.42% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $42.80
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.15
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.48
Price to sales ratio is 70.58% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
12.01
Price to free cash flow: 43.47
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-96.38%
Net income growth rate is 55.56% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.45%
Dividend yeild: 1.69%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.08
Expected next dividend best case: $0.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.79%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 29/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-11--$0.30
2021-11-09--$0.26
2021-05-12--$0.26
2022-02-09--$0.26
2021-08-11--$0.26
2021-02-10--$0.26
Dividend growth rate is -111.09% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
214.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
98.76%
Debt to assets ratio:
43.52%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -32.39% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
59.45
Interest coverage ratio is -73.78% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
325.00%
Annual debt growth is 23% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.38%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.689
Statistical significance of correlation:
TJX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is 52.25% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
10.37
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.407
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TJX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.18%
Operating profit margin is 37.24% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.33%
Effective tax rate is -0.15% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
54.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is 31.28% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is 5.28% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
1.52
Current ratio is -13.03% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-23.4
Cash conversion cycle is -149.02% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.51%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
146.7K
Each employee generates -63% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
16.2K
Each employee generates -67% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
9.8K
Each employee generates -62% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.9K
Each employee generates -129% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
45.0K
Each employee generates -129% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TJX
GENERAL MOTORS COMPANY (XNYS:GM)
FORD MOTOR COMPANY (XNYS:F)
Stellantis NV (XNYS:STLA)
COMCAST HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNYS:CCZ)
HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD. (XNYS:HMC)
NIO INC. (XNYS:NIO)
APTIV PLC (XNYS:APTV)
COUPANG, INC. (XNYS:CPNG)
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC. (XNYS:CMG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�38%
Buy�58%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
49.87B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
35.68B
14.19B
-
-
9.11B
-
-
9.11B
3.24M
92.40M
872.22M
5.49B
5.08B
3.34B
4.53B
1.19B
3.34B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
215.38M
Differed Income Tax :
- 16181.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
50.54M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1167856.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 156999.00K
Other Working Capital:
5.11B
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 48535.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 432727.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 225293.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 7345.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
8.78B
-
8.78B
685.39M
5.11B
440.53M
15.02B
14.19B
99.32M
-
-
135.77M
860.84M
15.29B
-
30.30B
4.43B
1.65B
286.46M
-
3.82B
9.91B
13.19B
1.03B
14.26B
-
24.16B
1.21B
5.19B
- 581184.0K
321.48M
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
44.79B
6.14B
30.30B
-
14.84B
6.1B
7.73M
-
- 224905.00K
- 750000.00K
36.54M
-
- 315215.00K
- 24426.00K
- 1053102.00K
16.65M
- 1694085.00K
8.78B
10.47B
- 432727.00K
- 225293.00K
- 658020.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TJX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$82.25
$87.23
$92.52
$98.13
$104.07