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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Shyft Group, Inc. (XNAS:SHYF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SHYF
Name:
THE SHYFT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHYF)
Sector:
- 33298.00K
Industry:
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Daryl M. Adams
Total Employees:
3,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 63.65% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE SHYFT GROUP, INC.(SHYF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.45
One Month Price Target:
$23.69
Six Month Price Target :
$24.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.75
This week:
$19.65
This month :
$15.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
811.51M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
35.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.03%
-18.75%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.34
$27.70
$15.56
$19.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$26.52
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.74
$20.37
$21.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SHYF
Sharpe Ratio:
2.58%
Comparison:
SHYF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 26.69% higher than the industry
& ratio is 13.21% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SHYF
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.51%
Monthly returns:
2.03%
Yearly returns:
21.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 15.62% above industry average
Classification:
SHYF, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
SHYF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.58%
Weekly Volatility:
8.01%
Monthly Volatility:
16.02%
Yearly Volatility:
55.49%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.66%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.69% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.26%
Weekly VaR:
-16.22%
Monthly VaR:
-32.45%
How Much Can the price of
SHYF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.99
This translates to price declining to:
$3.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SHYF is a 129.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 96.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.30% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SHYF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.952
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.347
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.414
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.647
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.862
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.089
Beta is 70.55% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.134
Beta is 63.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
23.15%
Sustainable growth rate is 70.48% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.084
Alpha is -16.55% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 537% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SHYF
Equity cost of capital:
0.159
Equity cost of capital is 45.40% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.42%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.33%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.33%
WACC is 24.11% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$28.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.61
Annual revenue growth rate is 143.63% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.71
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.54%
Equity growth rate per share is -99.43% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.37
EBITDA per share
$2.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
SHYF
P/E Ratio:
19.86
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
117.82
P/E ratio is -83.15% lower than main peers & is -23.12% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.97
SHYF is -38.24% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.19
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.54
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.82
Price to sales ratio is -54.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.61
Price to free cash flow: 33.19
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
357.07%
Net income growth rate is 624.92% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.53%
Dividend yeild: 0.64%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Expected next dividend best case: $0.06
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.04
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-16--$0.05
2021-11-15--$0.03
2021-05-17--$0.03
2022-02-16--$0.05
2021-08-17--$0.03
2021-02-24--$0.03
Dividend growth rate is -92.05% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
36.55%
Net debt to equity ratio:
43.22%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.12%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.42%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.77% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
173.98
Interest coverage ratio is 558.37% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
83.06%
Annual debt growth is -84% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.73%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.359
Statistical significance of correlation:
SHYF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is -35.27% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.077
Kurtosis
6.498
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.471
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SHYF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
73%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.38%
Operating profit margin is -222.39% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
73%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.33%
Effective tax rate is -77.77% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.51%
Return on equity (ROE) is 60.50% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is 151.70% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.64
Current ratio is -33.39% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
1.8
Cash conversion cycle is -96.34% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.08%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
263.4K
Each employee generates -50% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
19.7K
Each employee generates -130% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.1K
Each employee generates -116% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.8K
Each employee generates -370% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
60.3K
Each employee generates -370% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 95.85%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1.68% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
SHYF
EHang Holdings Limited (XNAS:EH)
HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC. (XNAS:HURN)
HAWAIIAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HA)
Oxford Square Capital Corp. (XNAS:OXSQL)
GOLAR LNG LIMITED (XNAS:GLNG)
KFORCE INC. (XNAS:KFRC)
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
US ECOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ECOL)
ENERGY RECOVERY, INC. (XNAS:ERII)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.00B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
815.58M
185.21M
12.69M
-
108.69M
-
-
121.37M
659.00K
430.00K
11.75M
74.81M
63.84M
53.50M
63.72M
9.13M
53.50M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.97M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.65M
Change in Working Capital :
- 28539.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 7049.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 10.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 27784.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5514.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.69M
-
3.69M
122.96M
91.26M
12.04M
229.94M
120.60M
48.88M
52.13M
-
4.88M
2.71M
229.20M
-
459.14M
89.97M
18.86M
-
5.19M
26.31M
140.32M
83.20M
7.92M
91.12M
-
231.44M
87.05M
140.54M
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
936.95M
227.60M
459.04M
-
102.05M
98.4M
-
29.00K
- 5485.00K
- 10000.00K
-
- 26789.00K
- 1886.00K
38.48M
- 198.00K
-
- 33467.00K
3.69M
37.16M
- 27784.00K
- 5514.00K
- 33298.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SHYF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.51
$75.46
$84.87
$95.47
$107.38