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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Progressive Corporation (XNYS:PGR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PGR
Name:
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION (XNYS:PGR)
Sector:
2.43B
Industry:
Insurance�Property & Casualty
CEO:
Ms. Susan Griffith
Total Employees:
49,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -3475.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION(PGR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�PROPERTY & CASUALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
122.41
One Month Price Target:
$122.7
Six Month Price Target :
$124.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$125.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$122.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$122.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$117.94
This week:
$112.42
This month :
$102.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
71.63B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
584.80M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.14%
-7.68%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$143.11
$133.44
$101.71
$111.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$130.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$128.22
$114.51
$116.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PGR
Sharpe Ratio:
4.75%
Comparison:
PGR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 243.91% higher than the industry
& ratio is 108.61% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PGR
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.48%
Monthly returns:
1.91%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 119.94% above industry average
Classification:
PGR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.25
Statistical test of Returns:
PGR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.82%
Weekly Volatility:
4.08%
Monthly Volatility:
8.15%
Yearly Volatility:
28.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -47.44% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.65%
Weekly VaR:
-8.16%
Monthly VaR:
-16.32%
How Much Can the price of
PGR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-13%
Worst case (decline):
-56.53%
This translates to price declining to:
$106.09
This translates to price declining to:
$53.21
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PGR is a 15.18% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -1.33% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -24.28% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PGR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.43
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.623
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.881
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.328
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.464
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.536
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.168
Beta is -63.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.555
Beta is -23.13% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.29%
Sustainable growth rate is 58.63% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.169
Alpha is 385.36% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1073% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PGR
Equity cost of capital:
0.061
Equity cost of capital is -12.65% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.67%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.39%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.68%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.68%
WACC is -12.48% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$82.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.2
Annual revenue growth rate is -45.08% below industry average
EPS:
$3.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.70%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -136.50% lower than the Insurance�Property & Casualty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$12.40
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 462.31%
Equity growth rate per share is 922.26% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.92
EBITDA per share
$5.63
Valuation Analysis Today of
PGR
P/E Ratio:
87.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.84
P/E ratio is 488.12% higher than main peers & is 398.68% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $64.39
PGR is 90.11% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.49
Price to sales ratio is -37.92% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.2
Price to free cash flow: 9.87
Price to free cash flow ratio is -56.24% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
27.62%
Net income growth rate is -194.64% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.29%
Dividend yeild: 1.47%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $1.80
Expected next dividend best case: $1.28
Expected next dividend worst case: -$1.08
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.82
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 551.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/06/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 14/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/07/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-06--$0.10
2021-12-17--$1.50
2021-07-06--$0.10
2022-01-06--$0.10
2021-10-06--$0.10
2021-04-06--$0.10
Dividend growth rate is 1096.36% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
37.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
35.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.27%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.02% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
15.22
Interest coverage ratio is 216.04% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.22%
Annual debt growth is 310% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.577
Statistical significance of correlation:
PGR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.6
Stock price is -3.88% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.6
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.018
Kurtosis
5.508
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.245
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PGR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.84%
Operating profit margin is -208.16% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.04%
Effective tax rate is 0.26% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is 57.37% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.96%
Return on assets (ROA) is 92.82% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
981.1K
Each employee generates -18% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
67.2K
Each employee generates -67% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
44.6K
Each employee generates -68% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
49.6K
Each employee generates -18% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -18% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PGR
Aon plc (XNYS:AON)
CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:COF)
Banco Santander SA (XNYS:SAN)
MOODY'S CORPORATION (XNYS:MCO)
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION (XNYS:WBK)
METLIFE, INC. (XNYS:MET)
ING Groep NV (XNYS:ING)
CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE (XNYS:CM)
BANK OF MONTREAL (XNYS:BMO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�17%
Hold�33%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
48.07B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
216.50M
346.00M
3.29B
3.29B
2.18B
2.73B
547.50M
2.18B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
85.70M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
17.30M
Change in Working Capital :
1.61B
Accounts Receivables:
- 1164000.00K
Other Working Capital:
312.60M
Other Non-Cash Items:
475.60M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.50B
Investments in PP&E:
- 73000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 11527700.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
272.70M
46.85B
47.12B
15.54B
-
-
-
1.10B
452.70M
102.70M
53.19B
-
-
54.85B
128.78B
73.93B
6.69B
-
-
-
-
-
6.39B
-
6.39B
63.26B
56.88B
584.90M
15.57B
- 1385800.0K
1.79B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
45.34B
17.05B
73.93B
100.03B
6.39B
6.1B
7.58B
219.10M
- 3802500.00K
-
-
- 28700.00K
- 71900.00K
1.49B
1.39B
-
85.20M
287.30M
202.10M
2.50B
- 73000.00K
2.43B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PGR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$126.55
$172.06
$177.00
$182.07
$187.29