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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Procter & Gamble Company (XNYS:PG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PG
Name:
THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY (XNYS:PG)
Sector:
3.55B
Industry:
Household & Personal Products
CEO:
Mr. David Taylor
Total Employees:
106,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -71.40% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY(PG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
137.16
One Month Price Target:
$137.43
Six Month Price Target :
$138.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$140.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$136.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$137.56
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$132.83
This week:
$127.49
This month :
$117.81
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
323.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
2.39B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.01%
-8.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$157.24
$148.03
$117.08
$126.29
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$145.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$143.07
$129.26
$131.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.10%
Comparison:
PG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -8.52% lower than the industry
& is -51.77% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PG
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.13%
Monthly returns:
0.52%
Yearly returns:
9.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -32.88% below industry average
Classification:
PG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
PG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.55%
Weekly Volatility:
3.46%
Monthly Volatility:
6.93%
Yearly Volatility:
23.99%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.39%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -10.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.15%
Weekly VaR:
-7.05%
Monthly VaR:
-14.11%
How Much Can the price of
PG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-12%
Worst case (decline):
-48.87%
This translates to price declining to:
$120.45
This translates to price declining to:
$70.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PG is -0.43% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -14.70% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -37.33% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.458
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.648
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.253
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.433
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.536
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.804
Beta is -57.06% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.835
Beta is -58.64% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.31%
Sustainable growth rate is -54.12% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.007
Alpha is 82.23% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 44% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PG
Equity cost of capital:
0.055
Equity cost of capital is -37.82% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.35%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.07%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.07%
WACC is -30.53% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$33.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -24.85% below industry average
EPS:
$5.72
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
57.45%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 9.56% higher than the Household & Personal Products industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.61
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.71%
Equity growth rate per share is 34.90% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$8.62
EBITDA per share
$8.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
PG
P/E Ratio:
23.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.55
P/E ratio is -10.98% lower than main peers & is -10.61% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $151.26
PG is -9.32% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $145.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $105.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.11
Price to sales ratio is 12.81% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.05
Price to free cash flow: 24.46
Price to free cash flow ratio is -21.26% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
47.61%
Net income growth rate is -98.17% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.95%
Dividend yeild: 2.57%
Previous Dividend: $0.91
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.91
Previous Dividend: $3.52
Expected next dividend best case: $0.96
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.87
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.82
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.10%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 21/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/11/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/12/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-21--$0.91
2021-10-21--$0.87
2021-04-22--$0.87
2022-01-20--$0.87
2021-07-22--$0.87
2021-01-21--$0.79
Dividend growth rate is -119.26% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
44.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
48.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
47.84
Interest coverage ratio is 239.41% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-7.78%
Annual debt growth is -117% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.58%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.629
Statistical significance of correlation:
PG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 13.11% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.027
Kurtosis
11.378
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.228
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
193%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.30%
Operating profit margin is -375.61% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
193%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.24%
Effective tax rate is -14.22% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
31.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is -28.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.20%
Return on assets (ROA) is 200.14% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.67
Current ratio is -75.33% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-90.5
Cash conversion cycle is -185.76% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
751.1K
Each employee generates 12% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
199.0K
Each employee generates 40% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
137.7K
Each employee generates 62% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
33.5K
Each employee generates 1272% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
899.4K
Each employee generates 1272% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PG
WALMART INC. (XNYS:WMT)
THE COCA-COLA COMPANY (XNYS:KO)
Philip Morris International Inc. (XNYS:PM)
THE ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES INC. (XNYS:EL)
DIAGEO PLC (XNYS:DEO)
TARGET CORPORATION (XNYS:TGT)
Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (XNYS:BUD)
Altria Group, Inc. (XNYS:MO)
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO P.L.C. (XNYS:BTI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�17%
Hold�42%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
79.62B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
41.15B
38.47B
-
-
20.72B
-
-
20.72B
45.00M
441.00M
2.80B
21.10B
17.76B
14.60B
17.91B
3.27B
14.60B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
711.00M
Differed Income Tax :
57.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
116.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 338000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1012000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 178000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 15000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.64B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
10.37B
-
10.37B
5.66B
6.31B
2.00B
24.34B
21.39B
40.49B
23.50B
-
-
9.94B
95.33B
-
119.67B
14.22B
11.99B
-
-
10.38B
36.59B
20.56B
9.79B
36.67B
-
73.26B
4.01B
108.36B
- 15026000.0K
- 52092000.00K
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
61.86B
46.11B
119.37B
-
32.55B
22.2B
-
- 1006000.00K
- 1006000.00K
- 1448000.00K
-
- 2750000.00K
- 2182000.00K
2.95B
- 3428000.00K
- 127000.00K
82.00M
10.37B
10.29B
4.64B
- 1091000.00K
3.55B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$141.04
$205.38
$210.15
$215.03
$220.02