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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc. (XNYS:PNC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PNC
Name:
THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNYS:PNC)
Sector:
- 989000.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. William Demchak
Total Employees:
57,668
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC.(PNC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
157.25
One Month Price Target:
$158.29
Six Month Price Target :
$163.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$169.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$156.62
Price Upper limit ($) :
$158.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$148.96
This week:
$138.71
This month :
$120.17
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
64.13B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
410.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.94%
-15.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$195.73
$178.11
$118.77
$136.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$172.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$168.62
$142.07
$145.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PNC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.03%
Comparison:
PNC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -16.03% lower than the industry
& is -54.74% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PNC
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.71%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -21.89% below industry average
Classification:
PNC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
PNC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.58%
Weekly Volatility:
5.78%
Monthly Volatility:
11.56%
Yearly Volatility:
40.04%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.51%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.27%
Weekly VaR:
-11.79%
Monthly VaR:
-23.58%
How Much Can the price of
PNC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.68%
This translates to price declining to:
$125.10
This translates to price declining to:
$28.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PNC is a 66.42% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 42.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.52% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PNC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.19
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.814
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.151
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.822
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.827
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.011
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.065
Beta is 11.27% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 23.02% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.53%
Sustainable growth rate is -28.51% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.027
Alpha is -336.88% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -175% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PNC
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is 15.58% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.82%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.37%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.37%
WACC is -6.13% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$47.98
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.31
Annual revenue growth rate is -24.13% below industry average
EPS:
$11.81
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.57%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -70.27% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$12.68
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 36.60%
Equity growth rate per share is -5.49% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$64.79
EBITDA per share
$21.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
PNC
P/E Ratio:
12.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.22
P/E ratio is -28.47% lower than main peers & is -0.74% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $146.55
PNC is 7.30% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $77.36
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $64.29
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.28
Price to sales ratio is -23.37% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.31
Price to free cash flow: 12.40
Price to free cash flow ratio is -33.48% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
17.34%
Net income growth rate is -68.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.94%
Dividend yeild: 3.34%
Previous Dividend: $1.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.50
Previous Dividend: $5.25
Expected next dividend best case: $1.59
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.41
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.87%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/12/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/01/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-12--$1.50
2021-10-14--$1.25
2021-04-15--$1.15
2022-01-14--$1.25
2021-07-15--$1.25
2021-01-15--$1.15
Dividend growth rate is -87.82% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
54.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-60.55%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.05% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.84
Interest coverage ratio is 2172.59% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.24%
Annual debt growth is -5542% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 13.20%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.744
Statistical significance of correlation:
PNC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 48.58% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
7.182
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.062
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PNC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
29.09%
Operating profit margin is -18.77% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.27%
Effective tax rate is -15.21% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is -10.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.97%
Return on assets (ROA) is -57.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
341.2K
Each employee generates -10% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
150.9K
Each employee generates -33% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
91.3K
Each employee generates -35% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 17.1K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PNC
U.S. BANCORP (XNYS:USB)
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (XNYS:BAM)
RY-PT
Truist Financial Corporation (XNYS:TFC)
Chubb Ltd (XNYS:CB)
USB-PP
Blackstone Inc (XNYS:BX)
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:MMC)
S&P Global Inc. (XNYS:SPGI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�33%
Hold�71%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
19.68B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
5.11B
-
7.38B
7.72B
335.00M
-
-
11.57B
462.00M
1.78B
8.70B
5.73B
5.27B
6.52B
1.19B
5.27B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
385.00M
Differed Income Tax :
61.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 2701000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 1024000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 163000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 989000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 15600000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
56.35B
3.19B
59.54B
7.14B
-
-
-
-
10.92B
2.21B
140.21B
-
-
-
541.25B
541.25B
-
-
-
-
-
-
26.57B
-
26.57B
518.60B
492.03B
2.71B
51.06B
- 5731000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
49.18B
541.21B
143.40B
26.57B
- 29777000.0K
9.26B
19.05B
12.71B
- 4039000.00K
22.00M
- 1279000.00K
- 576000.00K
- 6278000.00K
- 12150000.00K
-
- 432000.00K
7.57B
8.00B
- 989000.00K
-
- 989000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PNC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$196.43
$212.08
$228.97
$247.21
$266.91