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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Odp Corporation (XNAS:ODP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ODP
Name:
THE ODP CORPORATION (XNAS:ODP)
Sector:
9.00M
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Gerry Smith
Total Employees:
26,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -403.07% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE ODP CORPORATION(ODP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.69
One Month Price Target:
$36.06
Six Month Price Target :
$37.92
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.14
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$32.98
This week:
$29.62
This month :
$23.55
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.73B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
48.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.43%
-20.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.28
$42.45
$23.10
$28.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$40.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.30
$30.82
$32.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ODP
Sharpe Ratio:
3.39%
Comparison:
ODP, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 18.68% higher than the industry
& ratio is 48.93% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ODP
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.68%
Monthly returns:
2.74%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.96% below industry average
Classification:
ODP, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.39
Statistical test of Returns:
ODP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.77%
Weekly Volatility:
8.43%
Monthly Volatility:
16.86%
Yearly Volatility:
58.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.59%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.24% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.61%
Weekly VaR:
-17.01%
Monthly VaR:
-34.02%
How Much Can the price of
ODP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.51
This translates to price declining to:
$5.35
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ODP is a 140.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 105.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.23% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ODP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.949
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.342
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.376
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.621
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.864
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.781
Beta is 4.19% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is 29.78% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.45%
Sustainable growth rate is -86.59% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.170
Alpha is -22.74% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1081% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ODP
Equity cost of capital:
0.159
Equity cost of capital is 22.53% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.25%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.25%
WACC is 81.89% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$178.58
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -169.90% below industry average
EPS:
-$4.18
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.17%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -28.53% lower than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.25
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -294.99% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$18.40
EBITDA per share
$0.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
ODP
P/E Ratio:
10.2
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.7
P/E ratio is -65.64% lower than main peers & is -52.56% lower than the industry
-
ODP is -139.69% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $7.43
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.32
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.2
Price to sales ratio is -95.09% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.16
Price to free cash flow: 8.40
Price to free cash flow ratio is -64.31% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-306.55%
Net income growth rate is -35.23% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.14%
Previous Dividend: $0.03
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $0.05
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.03
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 13/03/2020
Previous dividend record date: 03/02/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/04/2020
Dividend History:
2020-02-28--$0.25
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-21--$0.25
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
59.99%
Net debt to equity ratio:
23.86%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.76%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.23
Interest coverage ratio is -99.07% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-26.88%
Annual debt growth is -138% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.391
Statistical significance of correlation:
ODP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is -17.68% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.015
Kurtosis
5.195
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.234
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ODP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.53%
Operating profit margin is -76.44% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
87%
Effective Tax Rate:
41.94%
Effective tax rate is 85.94% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-13.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1070.59% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.55%
Return on assets (ROA) is -148.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.04
Current ratio is -44.68% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-18.5
Cash conversion cycle is -128.62% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.37%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
334.0K
Each employee generates -55% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
0.2K
Each employee generates -100% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 7.9K
Each employee generates -105% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.3K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
95.2K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ODP
Franchise Group, Inc. (XNAS:FRG)
STITCH FIX, INC. (XNAS:SFIX)
ALLBIRDS, INC. (XNAS:BIRD)
PROTERRA INC (XNAS:PTRA)
MONRO, INC. (XNAS:MNRO)
PACTIV EVERGREEN INC. (XNAS:PTVE)
OVERSTOCK.COM, INC. (XNAS:OSTK)
BLOOMIN' BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:BLMN)
JACK IN THE BOX INC. (XNAS:JACK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
8.69B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.79B
1.89B
-
767.00M
1.59B
-
-
1.59B
2.00M
26.00M
134.00M
6.00M
133.00M
- 206000.00K
124.00M
52.00M
- 206000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.00M
Differed Income Tax :
10.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
9.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 83000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
30.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/26/22
2022
Q1
557.00M
-
557.00M
572.00M
866.00M
58.00M
2.05B
1.37B
464.00M
52.00M
-
209.00M
386.00M
2.48B
-
4.53B
975.00M
18.00M
14.00M
-
973.00M
1.97B
895.00M
21.00M
1.07B
-
3.04B
1.00M
- 562000.00K
- 1000.0K
-
March 26, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
8.38B
1.49B
4.53B
-
913.00M
356.0M
-
53.00M
53.00M
- 49000.00K
-
- 14000.00K
-
- 1000.00K
- 64000.00K
1.00M
20.00M
557.00M
537.00M
30.00M
- 21000.00K
9.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ODP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$40.27
$45.29
$50.93
$57.28
$64.43