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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The New York Times Company (XNYS:NYT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NYT
Name:
THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY (XNYS:NYT)
Sector:
- 23239.00K
Industry:
Publishing
CEO:
Mr. Mark Thompson
Total Employees:
5,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY(NYT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PUBLISHING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.65
One Month Price Target:
$30.82
Six Month Price Target :
$31.68
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$30.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.16
This week:
$27.32
This month :
$23.99
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.94B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
166.25M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.72%
-12.73%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.56
$34.41
$23.74
$26.89
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$33.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.71
$27.91
$28.59
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NYT
Sharpe Ratio:
0.49%
Comparison:
NYT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -63.82% lower than the industry
& is -78.47% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NYT
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.41%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -52.81% below industry average
Classification:
NYT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.3
Statistical test of Returns:
NYT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.38%
Weekly Volatility:
5.31%
Monthly Volatility:
10.63%
Yearly Volatility:
36.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.11%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -53.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.86%
Weekly VaR:
-10.87%
Monthly VaR:
-21.73%
How Much Can the price of
NYT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-75.28%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.83
This translates to price declining to:
$7.58
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NYT is a 53.39% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 31.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.32% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NYT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.00
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.857
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.212
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.663
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.689
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.591
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.955
Beta is 4.80% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.936
Beta is 6.82% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.43%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.051
Alpha is -686.80% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -323% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NYT
Equity cost of capital:
0.100
Equity cost of capital is 4.57% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.41
Annual revenue growth rate is -1627.24% below industry average
EPS:
$1.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.97%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -32.06% lower than the Publishing industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.07
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 68.36%
Equity growth rate per share is 101.25% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$1.93
Valuation Analysis Today of
NYT
P/E Ratio:
26.95
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.39
P/E ratio is 159.36% higher than main peers & is -6.51% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $31.43
NYT is -2.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $49.13
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.69
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.38
Price to sales ratio is -0.59% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.41
Price to free cash flow: 28.56
Price to free cash flow ratio is 62.98% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
71.70%
Net income growth rate is -26.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.45%
Dividend yeild: 0.98%
Previous Dividend: $0.09
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.09
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Expected next dividend best case: $0.10
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.08
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.07
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 7.25%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/05/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 21/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-05--$0.09
2021-10-07--$0.07
2021-04-06--$0.07
2022-01-04--$0.07
2021-07-09--$0.07
2021-01-05--$0.06
Dividend growth rate is -15.12% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
68.13%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-11.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 2.02% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
435.73
Interest coverage ratio is -12.97% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
20.72%
Annual debt growth is -17% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.519
Statistical significance of correlation:
NYT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.448
Stock price is 15.94% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.448
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.032
Kurtosis
5.426
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.262
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NYT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.41%
Operating profit margin is 183.12% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
200%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.30%
Effective tax rate is -14.78% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.30%
Return on equity (ROE) is 85.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.26%
Return on assets (ROA) is 97.04% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
0.82
Current ratio is -50.05% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.6
Cash conversion cycle is -104.00% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 52.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.84%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
427.9K
Each employee generates 54% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
64.1K
Each employee generates 82% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
36.7K
Each employee generates 119% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.6K
Each employee generates -263% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
408.5K
Each employee generates -263% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 21.48%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -36.77% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NYT
ALTICE USA, INC. (XNYS:ATUS)
Mobile TeleSystems Public Joint Stock Company (XNYS:MBT)
PLDT Inc. (XNYS:PHI)
KT CORPORATION (XNYS:KT)
Grupo Televisa SAB (XNYS:TV)
Tim SA (XNYS:TIMB)
ENDEAVOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:EDR)
DOLBY LABORATORIES, INC. (XNYS:DLB)
IHS Holding Limited (XNYS:IHS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
2.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.07B
1.07B
169.36M
264.90M
577.29M
312.38M
61.47M
808.12M
6.09M
736.00K
74.19M
320.70M
222.66M
183.59M
245.77M
62.18M
183.59M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.09M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.05M
Change in Working Capital :
- 34284.00K
Accounts Receivables:
40.93M
Other Working Capital:
7.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 16239.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 14659.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 515299.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 3450.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/27/22
2022
Q1
169.17M
52.79M
221.96M
197.49M
-
67.56M
487.02M
570.80M
414.20M
343.35M
252.82M
110.63M
350.45M
2.04B
-
2.53B
146.15M
-
-
-
446.86M
593.01M
-
441.18M
441.18M
-
1.03B
17.70M
1.83B
- 386937.0K
-
March 27, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.88B
1.49B
2.53B
305.60M
-
- 169171.0K
442.90M
- 8155.00K
- 84009.00K
-
-
- 29034.00K
- 11839.00K
- 11049.00K
- 51922.00K
- 164.00K
- 150754.00K
183.55M
334.31M
- 14659.00K
- 8580.00K
- 23239.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NYT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.24
$34.41
$36.73
$39.19
$41.83