_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Necessity Retail Reit, Inc. (XNAS:RTLPP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AFINP
Name:
THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT, INC. (XNAS:RTLPP)
Sector:
131.82M
Industry:
REIT�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. Edward Michael Weil Jr.
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT, INC.(RTLPP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.29
One Month Price Target:
$23.46
Six Month Price Target :
$24.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$22.07
This week:
$20.56
This month :
$17.82
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
970.19M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
133.27M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.54%
-25.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.96
$26.37
$17.62
$20.21
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.53
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.98
$21.04
$21.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AFINP
Sharpe Ratio:
0.52%
Comparison:
AFINP, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -10.44% lower than the industry
& is -76.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AFINP
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.45%
Yearly returns:
5.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -1.85% below industry average
Classification:
AFINP, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.69
Statistical test of Returns:
AFINP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.57%
Weekly Volatility:
5.74%
Monthly Volatility:
11.48%
Yearly Volatility:
39.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.25%
Weekly VaR:
-11.73%
Monthly VaR:
-23.47%
How Much Can the price of
AFINP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.29%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.52
This translates to price declining to:
$4.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AFINP is a 65.63% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.51% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AFINP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.801
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.133
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.571
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.907
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.155
Beta is 13.02% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.109
Beta is 17.62% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.067
Alpha is 27.21% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -429% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AFINP
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is 12.46% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.98%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.15%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.15%
WACC is 3.17% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.51
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.81
Annual revenue growth rate is 101.18% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.89%
Equity growth rate per share is -20.51% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$15.41
EBITDA per share
$1.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
AFINP
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
467.19
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.50
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.26
Price to sales ratio is 17.91% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.81
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 79.99% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
7.40%
Net income growth rate is -325.70% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -297.12%
Dividend yeild: 8.05%
Previous Dividend: $0.47
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.47
Previous Dividend: $1.88
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.47
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.47
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -0.01%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-04-07--$0.47
2021-10-04--$0.47
2021-04-01--$0.47
2022-01-06--$0.47
2021-07-01--$0.47
2021-01-04--$0.47
Dividend growth rate is -100.08% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
120.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
108.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
53.83%
Net debt to assets ratio:
48.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 5.55% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.08
Interest coverage ratio is 12.74% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
14.65%
Annual debt growth is 345% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 21.88%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.482
Statistical significance of correlation:
AFINP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.573
Stock price is -15.89% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.573
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.002
Kurtosis
53.242
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.2
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AFINP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
334%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.65%
Operating profit margin is -26.18% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
334%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is -169.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is -165.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
10.76
Current ratio is 307.27% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: -91.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-42.97%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AFINP
GLADSTONE COMMERCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:GOODN)
THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT, INC. (XNAS:RTL)
NYMTO
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMTN)
OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST (XNAS:OPI)
DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST (XNAS:DHC)
CREATIVE MEDIA & COMMUNITY TRUST CORPORATION. (XNAS:CMCTP)
GLADSTONE COMMERCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:GOOD)
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:ILPT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
12/31/21
Revenue:
335.16M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
55.43M
279.73M
-
70.92M
70.92M
-
130.46M
201.39M
-
81.78M
128.20M
169.81M
45.75M
- 40179.00K
- 40188.00K
-
- 40179.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
128.20M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
17.26M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5878.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 7033.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 270.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
45.82M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
145.23M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2021
FY
214.85M
-
214.85M
70.79M
-
236.09M
521.73M
18.19M
-
235.91M
-
-
3.04B
3.29B
-
3.81B
32.91M
-
-
9.52M
6.04M
48.47M
2.05B
2.25M
2.06B
-
2.10B
1.24M
- 1217435.00K
-
2.92B
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
256.82M
1.70B
3.80B
-
2.05B
1.8B
-
- 220725.00K
- 220725.00K
- 575165.00K
128.41M
- 560.00K
- 119379.00K
765.65M
198.95M
-
123.45M
236.85M
113.40M
145.23M
- 13407.00K
131.82M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AFINP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$19.00
$20.66
$22.48
$24.45
$26.59