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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Mosaic Company (XNYS:MOS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MOS
Name:
THE MOSAIC COMPANY (XNYS:MOS)
Sector:
215.70M
Industry:
Agricultural Inputs
CEO:
Mr. James O'Rourke
Total Employees:
12,525
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 102.07% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE MOSAIC COMPANY(MOS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AGRICULTURAL INPUTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
54.84
One Month Price Target:
$55.33
Six Month Price Target :
$57.76
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$60.68
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$54.61
Price Upper limit ($) :
$55.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$50.64
This week:
$45.44
This month :
$36.05
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
18.65B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
345.27M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.26%
-27.51%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$74.31
$65.17
$35.37
$44.51
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$62.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.24
$47.47
$49.44
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MOS
Sharpe Ratio:
5.89%
Comparison:
MOS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 58.23% higher than the industry
& ratio is 158.56% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MOS
Daily returns:
0.24%
Weekly returns:
1.18%
Monthly returns:
4.71%
Yearly returns:
42.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 33.92% above industry average
Classification:
MOS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
MOS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.85%
Weekly Volatility:
8.60%
Monthly Volatility:
17.20%
Yearly Volatility:
59.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 14.72% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.66%
Weekly VaR:
-17.13%
Monthly VaR:
-34.27%
How Much Can the price of
MOS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.71
This translates to price declining to:
$8.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MOS is a 141.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 107.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.14% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MOS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.878
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.241
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.297
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.856
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.928
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.247
Beta is 27.07% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.358
Beta is 16.64% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.79%
Sustainable growth rate is -1.28% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.425
Alpha is 42.91% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2706% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MOS
Equity cost of capital:
0.140
Equity cost of capital is 12.43% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.23%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.23%
WACC is 28.66% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$40.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.61
Annual revenue growth rate is -37.11% below industry average
EPS:
$7.07
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.98
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 172.90%
Equity growth rate per share is 158.67% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.08
EBITDA per share
$15.02
Valuation Analysis Today of
MOS
P/E Ratio:
6.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
6.33
P/E ratio is -1.37% lower than main peers & is -57.70% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $104.41
MOS is -47.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $223.95
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $69.29
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.35
Price to sales ratio is -37.65% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.61
Price to free cash flow: 18.40
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
251.50%
Net income growth rate is -20.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.53%
Dividend yeild: 0.75%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.41
Expected next dividend best case: $0.18
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.07
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 13.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 14/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 31/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/02/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-01--$0.15
2021-12-01--$0.08
2021-06-02--$0.08
2022-03-02--$0.11
2021-09-01--$0.08
2021-03-03--$0.05
Dividend growth rate is -207.37% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
29.89%
Net debt to equity ratio:
32.08%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
15.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -68.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
27.46
Interest coverage ratio is 120.57% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-7.28%
Annual debt growth is -6% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 15.89%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.496
Statistical significance of correlation:
MOS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.437
Stock price is 13.42% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.437
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.077
Kurtosis
6.448
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.406
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MOS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
119%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.40%
Operating profit margin is 104.28% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
119%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.81%
Effective tax rate is 84.91% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -14.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.34%
Return on assets (ROA) is 69.33% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.23
Current ratio is -29.69% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
42.5
Cash conversion cycle is 104.08% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.62%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
413.9K
Each employee generates -35% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
212.0K
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
17.2K
Each employee generates -57% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -57% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MOS
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:CF)
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (XNYS:ACH)
Vedanta Limited (XNSE:VEDL)
Suzano Inc. (XNYS:SUZ)
Forum Energy Metals Corp. (XTSX:FMC)
Teck Resources Limited (XNYS:TECK)
ICL GROUP LTD (XNYS:ICL)
EASTMAN CHEMICAL COMPANY (XNYS:EMN)
JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:JHX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�50%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.98B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.78B
4.20B
-
-
461.20M
-
174.10M
635.30M
25.40M
188.80M
1.43B
5.18B
3.41B
2.66B
3.53B
910.40M
2.66B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
130.20M
Stock Based Compensation :
16.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 639000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 187100.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
506.20M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
881.90M
-
881.90M
1.72B
3.33B
301.30M
6.23B
12.99B
1.20B
-
727.20M
1.01B
1.27B
17.20B
-
23.42B
848.70M
1.14B
250.40M
818.40M
2.25B
5.05B
3.48B
2.03B
6.58B
-
11.63B
3.60M
13.20B
- 1618300.0K
56.60M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
10.41B
11.64B
23.27B
-
4.62B
3.7B
1.70M
- 298900.00K
- 297200.00K
- 657400.00K
-
- 422100.00K
- 40600.00K
995.10M
- 125000.00K
31.10M
115.10M
901.40M
786.30M
506.20M
- 290500.00K
215.70M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MOS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$60.16
$66.57
$73.65
$81.50
$90.17