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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Joint Corp. (XNAS:JYNT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JYNT
Name:
THE JOINT CORP. (XNAS:JYNT)
Sector:
- 1092.07K
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Peter Holt
Total Employees:
316
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 238.27% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE JOINT CORP.(JYNT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.88
One Month Price Target:
$17.
Six Month Price Target :
$17.62
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.37
This week:
$13.5
This month :
$10.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
242.07M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.50M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.76%
-37.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.89
$20.67
$9.87
$13.09
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.93
$14.13
$14.83
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JYNT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.97%
Comparison:
JYNT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -11.32% lower than the industry
& is -13.50% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JYNT
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.48%
Monthly returns:
1.92%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -0.13% below industry average
Classification:
JYNT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
JYNT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.41%
Weekly Volatility:
9.86%
Monthly Volatility:
19.71%
Yearly Volatility:
68.28%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.20% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.96%
Weekly VaR:
-20.03%
Monthly VaR:
-40.05%
How Much Can the price of
JYNT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.09
This translates to price declining to:
$2.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JYNT is a 182.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 142.19% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 32.11% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JYNT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.792
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.119
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.727
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.628
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.827
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.204
Beta is 8.30% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is 22.15% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
70.25%
Sustainable growth rate is 95.18% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.109
Alpha is -13.14% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 694% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JYNT
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is 15.48% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.74%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
8.23
Annual revenue growth rate is 214.63% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.27
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
22.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 66.36% higher than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.38
-
-
Debt per share
$1.33
EBITDA per share
$0.71
Valuation Analysis Today of
JYNT
P/E Ratio:
148.85
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
253.34
P/E ratio is -41.24% lower than main peers & is 111.55% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $19.00
JYNT is -11.15% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.84
Price to sales ratio is 34.23% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
8.23
Price to free cash flow: 43.91
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2587.33%
Net income growth rate is 1585.69% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
64.85%
Net debt to equity ratio:
19.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
6.96%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -58.04% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
190.94%
Annual debt growth is 88% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.11%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.312
Statistical significance of correlation:
JYNT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is -27.85% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.042
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.107
Kurtosis
10.137
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.925
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JYNT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
358%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.72%
Operating profit margin is -152.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
358%
Effective Tax Rate:
-22.22%
Effective tax rate is -201.79% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.61%
Return on equity (ROE) is -12.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.45%
Return on assets (ROA) is 24.85% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.25
Current ratio is -31.86% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-57.9
Cash conversion cycle is -314.00% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.97%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
272.4K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
32.7K
Each employee generates -40% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.7K
Each employee generates -50% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.5K
Each employee generates -150% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
187.3K
Each employee generates -150% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
JYNT
Surmodics, Inc. (XNAS:SRDX)
Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (XNAS:GRCL)
SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:SNDX)
ANNEXON, INC. (XNAS:ANNX)
Prometheus Biosciences, Inc. (XNAS:RXDX)
Merus NV (XNAS:MRUS)
XENON PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (XNAS:XENE)
TCR2 THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:TCRR)
BIOXCEL THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:BTAI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
86.08M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.06M
77.02M
-
54.42M
66.64M
12.22M
6.55M
73.19M
-
-
6.55M
10.34M
3.20M
4.64M
3.80M
- 843.30K
4.64M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.63M
Differed Income Tax :
- 16.78K
Stock Based Compensation :
323.56K
Change in Working Capital :
- 1289.19K
Accounts Receivables:
88.01K
Other Working Capital:
209.80K
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.91K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
447.88K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1289.94K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
18.25M
-
18.25M
3.61M
-
4.01M
25.87M
33.81M
5.09M
4.83M
-
9.21M
6.26M
59.19M
-
85.06M
1.87M
4.91M
-
8.68M
5.16M
20.62M
19.27M
27.23K
34.70M
-
55.33M
14.49K
- 13724.94K
-
43.42M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
82.25M
29.71M
85.04M
-
24.17M
5.9M
-
- 250.00K
- 1539.94K
- 21.39K
-
-
-
47.03K
25.64K
-
- 1066.43K
18.85M
19.91M
447.88K
- 1539.94K
- 1092.07K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JYNT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.45
$48.62
$52.88
$57.51
$62.54