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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Howard Hughes Corporation (XNYS:HHC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HHC
Name:
THE HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION (XNYS:HHC)
Sector:
- 101041.00K
Industry:
Real Estate�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. Paul Layne
Total Employees:
646
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION(HHC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REAL ESTATE�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
64.47
One Month Price Target:
$64.97
Six Month Price Target :
$67.49
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$70.51
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$64.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$64.78
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$60.43
This week:
$55.43
This month :
$46.39
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
49.91M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.8%
-20.78%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$83.25
$74.77
$45.69
$54.17
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.20
$56.91
$58.74
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HHC
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.55%
Comparison:
HHC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.00% lower than the industry
& is -167.93% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HHC
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.19%
Monthly returns:
-0.76%
Yearly returns:
-9.15%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 0.00% below industry average
Classification:
HHC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.02
Statistical test of Returns:
HHC has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.04%
Weekly Volatility:
6.79%
Monthly Volatility:
13.57%
Yearly Volatility:
47.02%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.67%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.27%
Weekly VaR:
-14.02%
Monthly VaR:
-28.05%
How Much Can the price of
HHC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$48.19
This translates to price declining to:
$9.67
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HHC is a 97.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.59% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HHC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.39
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.959
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.356
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.691
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.927
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.965
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.125
Beta is 23.89% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is 0.00% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.219
Alpha is 0.00% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1391% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HHC
Equity cost of capital:
0.127
Equity cost of capital is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.05%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.05%
WACC is 0.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$29.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.91
FALSE
EPS:
$2.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-15.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 0.00% lower than the Real Estate�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$95.05
EBITDA per share
$9.81
Valuation Analysis Today of
HHC
P/E Ratio:
23.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
41.13
-
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.22
Price to sales ratio is -64.37% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.91
-
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
569.71%
Net income growth rate is 0.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
133.53%
Net debt to equity ratio:
114.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -18.25% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.97
Interest coverage ratio is 4762.01% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-45.65%
Annual debt growth is 0% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.90%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.681
Statistical significance of correlation:
HHC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.681
Stock price is 0.00% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.681
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.072
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.128
Kurtosis
10.403
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.347
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HHC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
158%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.01%
Operating profit margin is -359.91% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
158%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.71%
Effective tax rate is 125.91% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.51%
Return on equity (ROE) is -301.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -294.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
2.05
Current ratio is -2.27% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
225.6
Cash conversion cycle is 764.89% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.2M
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
757.9K
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
193.2K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 156.4K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
11.9M
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HHC
HEALTHCARE REALTY TRUST INCORPORATED (XNYS:HR)
EASTGROUP PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:EGP)
AMERICAN CAMPUS COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:ACC)
STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC. (XNYS:STAG)
DOUGLAS EMMETT, INC. (XNYS:DEI)
BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC. (XNYS:BRX)
SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL, INC. (XNYS:SRC)
COUSINS PROPERTIES INCORPORATED (XNYS:CUZ)
PARK HOTELS & RESORTS INC. (XNYS:PK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.45B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
902.65M
544.90M
-
86.12M
86.12M
-
209.19M
295.30M
90.00K
123.26M
204.46M
489.60M
289.60M
124.82M
156.31M
37.06M
124.82M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
48.63M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 25523.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 3800.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 122041.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 100760.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 69554.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
688.04M
-
688.04M
594.82M
46.96M
431.69M
1.76B
56.18M
-
72.00M
2.90M
-
7.58B
7.71B
-
9.47B
48.73M
-
18.06M
-
809.58M
858.32M
4.74B
7.61M
5.06B
-
5.91B
564.00K
- 14334.00K
- 6103.0K
3.57B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.20B
3.55B
9.47B
-
4.74B
4.1B
-
103.41M
33.86M
- 91939.00K
-
- 179293.00K
-
175.02M
- 96216.00K
-
- 163117.00K
1.05B
1.22B
- 100760.00K
- 281.00K
- 101041.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HHC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$76.94
$84.15
$92.03
$100.65
$110.08