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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (XNAS:HAIN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HAIN
Name:
THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HAIN)
Sector:
19.78M
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. Mark Schiller
Total Employees:
3,078
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -129.92% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC.(HAIN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.99
One Month Price Target:
$20.07
Six Month Price Target :
$20.46
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$20.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.91
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.01
This week:
$17.79
This month :
$15.59
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.67B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
89.30M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.83%
-20.97%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.56
$22.49
$15.42
$17.49
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.37
$18.16
$18.61
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HAIN
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.64%
Comparison:
HAIN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -149.05% lower than the industry
& is -128.20% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HAIN
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.13%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -118.66% below industry average
Classification:
HAIN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.5
Statistical test of Returns:
HAIN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.39%
Weekly Volatility:
5.35%
Monthly Volatility:
10.71%
Yearly Volatility:
37.10%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -4.39% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.92%
Weekly VaR:
-11.01%
Monthly VaR:
-22.02%
How Much Can the price of
HAIN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-76.29%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.08
This translates to price declining to:
$4.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HAIN is a 55.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HAIN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.622
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.879
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.553
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.443
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.348
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.889
Beta is -21.77% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is 18.65% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.87%
Sustainable growth rate is -2.02% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.095
Alpha is -855.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -604% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HAIN
Equity cost of capital:
0.079
Equity cost of capital is 10.45% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.75%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.75%
WACC is 18.14% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.32
Annual revenue growth rate is -147.71% below industry average
EPS:
$1.19
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.07
-
-
Debt per share
$4.79
EBITDA per share
$2.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
HAIN
P/E Ratio:
24.16
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
246.58
P/E ratio is -90.20% lower than main peers & is -37.49% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $45.98
HAIN is -56.53% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.95
Price to sales ratio is -59.17% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.32
Price to free cash flow: 18.66
Price to free cash flow ratio is 10.66% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
726.83%
Net income growth rate is 6656.02% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
31.70%
Net debt to equity ratio:
29.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.62%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -62.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.86
Interest coverage ratio is -91.54% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
15.93%
Annual debt growth is -94% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.34
Statistical significance of correlation:
HAIN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is -20.71% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.07
Kurtosis
16.247
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.576
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HAIN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
96%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.12%
Operating profit margin is 47.57% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
96%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.90%
Effective tax rate is -53.64% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.55%
Return on equity (ROE) is -22.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.38%
Return on assets (ROA) is 20.53% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.8
Current ratio is -34.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
3.8
Cash conversion cycle is -92.31% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 25.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.72%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
612.6K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
64.4K
Each employee generates -43% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
37.5K
Each employee generates -28% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.4K
Each employee generates -273% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
523.0K
Each employee generates -273% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HAIN
FRESHPET, INC. (XNAS:FRPT)
CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CELH)
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
SANDERSON FARMS, INC. (XNAS:SAFM)
BEYOND MEAT, INC. (XNAS:BYND)
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LOPE)
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (XNAS:SFM)
LANCASTER COLONY CORPORATION (XNAS:LANC)
INTER PARFUMS, INC. (XNAS:IPAR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�4%
Hold�50%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.89B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.43B
451.00M
-
-
291.96M
-
9.41M
301.37M
-
9.51M
46.20M
198.34M
134.30M
115.32M
144.58M
27.32M
115.32M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.86M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2105.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.29M
Change in Working Capital :
5.98M
Accounts Receivables:
- 9443.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1566.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 843.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
37.59M
Investments in PP&E:
- 17810.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 408.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
28.96M
-
28.96M
181.05M
280.18M
42.14M
532.32M
400.81M
863.35M
308.59M
16.72M
-
20.47M
1.61B
-
2.14B
172.73M
335.00K
-
-
123.30M
296.36M
427.59M
29.21M
497.15M
-
793.51M
1.10M
710.64M
- 93974.0K
731.00M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.74B
1.35B
2.14B
-
427.93M
399.0M
-
164.00K
- 18054.00K
- 5237.00K
-
- 177103.00K
-
118.83M
- 63515.00K
- 2926.00K
- 46909.00K
28.96M
75.87M
37.59M
- 17810.00K
19.78M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HAIN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.02
$22.01
$23.03
$24.11
$25.24