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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Hackett Group, Inc. (XNAS:HCKT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HCKT
Name:
THE HACKETT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HCKT)
Sector:
5.06M
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Ted Fernandez
Total Employees:
1,135
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -95.69% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE HACKETT GROUP, INC.(HCKT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
20.18
One Month Price Target:
$20.25
Six Month Price Target :
$20.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.05
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$20.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.28
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.13
This week:
$17.83
This month :
$15.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
625.74M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
31.68M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.86%
-18.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.06
$22.81
$15.30
$17.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$22.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.60
$18.28
$18.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HCKT
Sharpe Ratio:
2.48%
Comparison:
HCKT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 36.75% higher than the industry
& ratio is 8.73% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HCKT
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.36%
Monthly returns:
1.45%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 20.76% above industry average
Classification:
HCKT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
HCKT has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.57%
Weekly Volatility:
5.76%
Monthly Volatility:
11.51%
Yearly Volatility:
39.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -98.86% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.21%
Weekly VaR:
-11.66%
Monthly VaR:
-23.31%
How Much Can the price of
HCKT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.77%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.19
This translates to price declining to:
$3.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HCKT is a 64.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.17% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HCKT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.558
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.788
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.634
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.484
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.688
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.702
Beta is -62.47% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is -47.15% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.70%
Sustainable growth rate is -93.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.099
Alpha is 229.55% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 631% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HCKT
Equity cost of capital:
0.075
Equity cost of capital is -34.15% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.47%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.38%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.38%
WACC is -11.09% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.25
Annual revenue growth rate is -124.73% below industry average
EPS:
$1.40
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.33%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 411.01% higher than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.34
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 25.49%
Equity growth rate per share is -18.68% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.04
EBITDA per share
$1.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
HCKT
P/E Ratio:
14.45
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
112.4
P/E ratio is -87.14% lower than main peers & is -69.55% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $66.46
HCKT is -69.63% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.99
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.66
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.2
Price to sales ratio is -39.83% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.25
Price to free cash flow: 15.08
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
70.05%
Net income growth rate is -99.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 2.08%
Previous Dividend: $0.11
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.11
Previous Dividend: $0.42
Expected next dividend best case: $0.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.09
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -3.55%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 24/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-23--$0.11
2021-12-16--$0.10
2021-06-24--$0.10
2022-03-24--$0.11
2021-09-23--$0.10
2021-03-25--$0.10
Dividend growth rate is -50.69% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.79%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-29.60%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-21.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.11% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
563.47
Interest coverage ratio is 1248.66% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-38.38%
Annual debt growth is -746% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.409
Statistical significance of correlation:
HCKT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is -31.35% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.032
Kurtosis
11.01
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.229
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HCKT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
153%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.54%
Operating profit margin is -352.59% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
153%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.30%
Effective tax rate is -61.00% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
30.40%
Return on equity (ROE) is -45.96% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
21.92%
Return on assets (ROA) is 25576.89% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.16
Current ratio is -6.68% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
50.1
Cash conversion cycle is 33.60% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
256.4K
Each employee generates -39% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
48.7K
Each employee generates 9% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
40.3K
Each employee generates 373% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.5K
Each employee generates -167% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
92.3K
Each employee generates -167% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HCKT
ATTU
Triterras, Inc. (OTCM:TRIRF)
DIGIMARC CORPORATION (XNAS:DMRC)
ALLIED MOTION TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:AMOT)
QUANTUM CORPORATION (XNAS:QMCO)
ITURAN LOCATION AND CONTROL LTD. (XNAS:ITRN)
Mogo Inc. (XNAS:MOGO)
SIERRA WIRELESS, INC. (XNAS:SWIR)
Clearfield, Inc. (XNAS:CLFD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
290.99M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
179.79M
111.20M
-
60.17M
60.17M
-
-
60.17M
-
98.00K
4.19M
55.22M
51.03M
45.69M
50.93M
5.25M
45.69M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
946.00K
Differed Income Tax :
1.64M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 9332.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
1.25M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 307.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
6.05M
Investments in PP&E:
- 993.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/1/22
2022
Q1
47.75M
-
47.75M
50.51M
-
5.36M
103.63M
19.64M
84.64M
-
-
-
540.00K
104.82M
-
208.45M
8.04M
2.07M
-
15.86M
21.98M
47.96M
1.18M
-
10.17M
-
58.13M
60.00K
18.30M
- 11607.0K
143.56M
April 1, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
239.96M
150.32M
208.45M
-
3.25M
- 44499.0K
-
-
- 993.00K
-
-
- 3066.00K
-
- 10.00K
- 3076.00K
- 27.00K
1.96M
47.75M
45.79M
6.05M
- 993.00K
5.06M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HCKT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.16
$68.05
$70.97
$74.02
$77.20