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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (XNYS:GS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GS
Name:
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. (XNYS:GS)
Sector:
- 23905000.00K
Industry:
Capital Markets
CEO:
Mr. David Solomon
Total Employees:
47,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC.(GS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CAPITAL MARKETS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
331.48
One Month Price Target:
$334.01
Six Month Price Target :
$346.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$361.79
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$330.41
Price Upper limit ($) :
$333.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$315.34
This week:
$295.4
This month :
$259.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
113.15B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
341.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.58%
-12.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$406.31
$371.63
$256.65
$291.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$360.35
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$352.95
$302.52
$310.01
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GS
Sharpe Ratio:
3.28%
Comparison:
GS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -6.20% lower than the industry
& ratio is 43.80% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GS
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.44%
Monthly returns:
1.76%
Yearly returns:
25.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -15.75% below industry average
Classification:
GS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.4
Statistical test of Returns:
GS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.41%
Weekly Volatility:
5.40%
Monthly Volatility:
10.79%
Yearly Volatility:
37.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.87%
Weekly VaR:
-10.89%
Monthly VaR:
-21.77%
How Much Can the price of
GS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-75.42%
This translates to price declining to:
$271.01
This translates to price declining to:
$81.49
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GS is a 53.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 31.64% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.36
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.981
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.387
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.486
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.868
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.951
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.82
Beta is 65.99% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.144
Beta is 18.92% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.64%
Sustainable growth rate is -18.77% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.086
Alpha is -38.60% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 550% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GS
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is 13.50% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.37%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.37%
WACC is 4.94% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$156.56
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.98
Annual revenue growth rate is 32.15% above the industry average
EPS:
$51.52
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
41.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -21.77% lower than the Capital Markets industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 67.41%
Equity growth rate per share is -32.63% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$755.81
EBITDA per share
$90.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
GS
P/E Ratio:
7.5
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.56
P/E ratio is -48.53% lower than main peers & is -62.51% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,030.09
GS is -67.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $152.83
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $131.02
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.12
Price to sales ratio is -50.59% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.98
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
130.01%
Net income growth rate is -207.57% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.35%
Dividend yeild: 2.41%
Previous Dividend: $2.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $2.00
Previous Dividend: $8.00
Expected next dividend best case: $2.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.68
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$2.00
2021-12-01--$2.00
2021-05-28--$1.25
2022-03-01--$2.00
2021-08-31--$2.00
2021-03-01--$1.25
Dividend growth rate is -79.79% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
224.35%
Net debt to equity ratio:
36.52%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -78.11% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.64
Interest coverage ratio is -88.95% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.25%
Annual debt growth is -90% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.32%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.778
Statistical significance of correlation:
GS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.637
Stock price is 22.21% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.637
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.014
Kurtosis
9.082
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.217
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
66%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.76%
Operating profit margin is -49.60% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
66%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.80%
Effective tax rate is -0.37% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.18%
Return on assets (ROA) is -78.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.04
Current ratio is -75.20% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
16.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
656.1K
Each employee generates 133% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
398.7K
Each employee generates 133% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 508.6K
Each employee generates 2091% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 2091% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GS
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC (XNYS:HSBC)
HDFC BANK LIMITED (XNYS:HDB)
AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY (XNYS:AXP)
THE TORONTO-DOMINION BANK (XNYS:TD)
China Life Insurance Company Limited (OTCM:LFCHY)
S&P Global Inc. (XNYS:SPGI)
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA (XNYS:RY)
RY-PT
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�29%
Hold�63%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
53.44B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.33B
8.60B
-
15.76B
16.39B
635.00M
- 863000.00K
3.38B
12.28B
5.46B
2.01B
30.84B
5.22B
18.74B
23.36B
4.63B
18.74B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
492.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.13B
Change in Working Capital :
- 30511000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 22952000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 953000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 13000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 8780000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
274.00B
92.08B
366.08B
175.00B
-
- 174836000.00K
366.25B
-
-
-
484.00B
-
-
-
1222.75B
1589.00B
293.00B
58.00B
-
-
-
351.00B
258.00B
-
258.00B
1381.00B
1474.00B
9.00M
134.93B
- 2684000.0K
- 17256000.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.72B
115.00B
1589.00B
576.08B
316.00B
42.0B
2.37B
- 9644000.00K
- 17021000.00K
- 14483000.00K
-
- 500000.00K
- 815000.00K
68.90B
53.10B
-
13.13B
274.16B
261.04B
- 22952000.00K
- 953000.00K
- 23905000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$363.60
$684.19
$746.76
$815.05
$889.59