_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The First Of Long Island Corporation (XNAS:FLIC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FLIC
Name:
THE FIRST OF LONG ISLAND CORPORATION (XNAS:FLIC)
Sector:
9.48M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Becker
Total Employees:
318
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE FIRST OF LONG ISLAND CORPORATION(FLIC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
18.32
One Month Price Target:
$18.37
Six Month Price Target :
$18.63
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$18.24
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.32
This week:
$16.08
This month :
$13.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
412.28M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.85M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.25%
-21.8%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.97
$20.86
$13.67
$15.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$20.17
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.72
$16.46
$16.92
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FLIC
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.57%
Comparison:
FLIC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -146.41% lower than the industry
& is -125.01% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FLIC
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.13%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -113.90% below industry average
Classification:
FLIC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.69
Statistical test of Returns:
FLIC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.66%
Weekly Volatility:
5.95%
Monthly Volatility:
11.90%
Yearly Volatility:
41.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.47%
Weekly VaR:
-12.23%
Monthly VaR:
-24.46%
How Much Can the price of
FLIC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-84.74%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.34
This translates to price declining to:
$2.79
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FLIC is a 72.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FLIC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.55
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.777
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.355
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.503
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.822
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.829
Beta is -39.74% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -48.13% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.94%
Sustainable growth rate is -34.89% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.081
Alpha is -797.29% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -515% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FLIC
Equity cost of capital:
0.066
Equity cost of capital is -32.59% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.67%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.57%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.57%
WACC is -43.81% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.31
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.08
Annual revenue growth rate is -22.86% below industry average
EPS:
$1.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -79.08% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.29
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 26.31%
Equity growth rate per share is -32.05% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$8.62
EBITDA per share
$3.21
Valuation Analysis Today of
FLIC
P/E Ratio:
9.54
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.35
P/E ratio is -33.50% lower than main peers & is -23.12% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $23.08
FLIC is -20.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $37.46
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.54
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.45
Price to sales ratio is -19.34% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.08
Price to free cash flow: 14.18
Price to free cash flow ratio is -57.98% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
11.73%
Net income growth rate is -78.69% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 21.11%
Dividend yeild: 4.31%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.79
Expected next dividend best case: $0.21
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.19
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/06/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 24/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/03/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-03-15--$0.20
2021-10-07--$0.20
2021-03-09--$0.19
2022-01-04--$0.20
2021-07-07--$0.19
2021-01-08--$0.19
Dividend growth rate is -95.42% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
50.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
41.37%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.70%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.18% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.14
Interest coverage ratio is 520.29% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.38%
Annual debt growth is 1283% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 27.58%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.461
Statistical significance of correlation:
FLIC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -8.00% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.043
Kurtosis
10.091
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.567
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FLIC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
19.53%
Effective tax rate is -9.35% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.27%
Return on equity (ROE) is -5.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is -54.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 15.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
381.7K
Each employee generates 1% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
230.9K
Each employee generates 2% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
138.1K
Each employee generates -2% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
29.8K
Each employee generates -64% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -64% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FLIC
MERCANTILE BANK CORPORATION (XNAS:MBWM)
ACTC
First Community Bankshares, Inc. (XNAS:FCBC)
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:FISI)
INDEPENDENT BANK CORPORATION (XNAS:IBCP)
TCV Acquisition Corp (XNAS:TCVA)
ATLANTIC CAPITAL BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ACBI)
Orion Acquisition Corp (XNAS:OHPA)
MAAC
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
121.38M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
39.44M
39.44M
-
-
-
123.19M
14.28M
4.59M
73.44M
-
43.91M
54.56M
10.66M
43.91M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.24M
Differed Income Tax :
974.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
516.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 4207.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
125.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
10.73M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1252.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 4742.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
85.81M
682.98M
768.80M
-
-
-
-
45.98M
-
-
682.98M
-
-
-
4.19B
4.19B
-
50.00M
-
-
-
50.00M
196.93M
-
196.93M
3.95B
3.80B
2.31M
327.79M
- 29997.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
389.46M
4.19B
1.37B
246.93M
161.1M
14.05M
- 117865.00K
- 109805.00K
- 75000.00K
-
- 4663.00K
- 9268.00K
230.15M
141.21M
-
42.14M
85.81M
43.68M
10.73M
- 1252.00K
9.48M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FLIC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$23.22
$24.00
$24.81
$25.64
$26.50