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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The First Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:FBMS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FBMS
Name:
THE FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FBMS)
Sector:
21.92M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. M. Ray Cole
Total Employees:
794
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -655.30% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE FIRST BANCSHARES, INC.(FBMS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.01
One Month Price Target:
$30.17
Six Month Price Target :
$30.99
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$31.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.15
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.42
This week:
$26.46
This month :
$22.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
715.32M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.03M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.08%
-13.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.39
$34.02
$22.63
$26.00
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.93
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.21
$27.08
$27.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FBMS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.34%
Comparison:
FBMS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -72.49% lower than the industry
& is -85.17% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FBMS
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.35%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -61.31% below industry average
Classification:
FBMS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
FBMS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.59%
Weekly Volatility:
5.78%
Monthly Volatility:
11.57%
Yearly Volatility:
40.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.68%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.61% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.29%
Weekly VaR:
-11.84%
Monthly VaR:
-23.68%
How Much Can the price of
FBMS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-82.03%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.79
This translates to price declining to:
$5.39
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FBMS is a 67.13% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FBMS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.97
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.678
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.958
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.813
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.403
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.674
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.918
Beta is 5.84% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 0.79% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.31%
Sustainable growth rate is -9.01% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.056
Alpha is -581.12% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -355% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FBMS
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is 0.54% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.83%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.34%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.34%
WACC is -14.77% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.22
Annual revenue growth rate is 13.27% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -23.44% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 230.91%
Equity growth rate per share is 496.32% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$6.03
EBITDA per share
$4.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
FBMS
P/E Ratio:
9.74
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.93
P/E ratio is -24.68% lower than main peers & is -21.52% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.85
FBMS is -20.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $177.15
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $65.02
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.7
Price to sales ratio is -13.41% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.22
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -38.01% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
113.33%
Net income growth rate is 105.78% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.32%
Dividend yeild: 2.20%
Previous Dividend: $0.18
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.18
Previous Dividend: $0.66
Expected next dividend best case: $0.21
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.15
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 8.70%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-09--$0.18
2021-11-09--$0.16
2021-05-07--$0.14
2022-02-09--$0.17
2021-08-09--$0.15
2021-02-09--$0.13
Dividend growth rate is -63.07% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.52%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-110.41%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-10.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.19
Interest coverage ratio is 647.03% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-45.91%
Annual debt growth is -14596% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.421
Statistical significance of correlation:
FBMS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -15.87% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.039
Kurtosis
4.995
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.057
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FBMS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.23%
Operating profit margin is -77.03% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.41%
Effective tax rate is -5.29% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -54.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.72%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
245.2K
Each employee generates -35% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
139.0K
Each employee generates -38% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
81.0K
Each employee generates -43% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
27.6K
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.9M
Each employee generates -67% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FBMS
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (XNAS:TCPC)
ALLEGIANCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ABTX)
Univest Financial Corporation (XNAS:UVSP)
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:NFBK)
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
NATIONAL WESTERN LIFE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NWLI)
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
194.71M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
48.05M
-
68.75M
69.06M
316.00K
11.01M
29.19M
174.30M
17.83M
11.69M
110.36M
16.02M
64.35M
80.85M
16.50M
64.35M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.57M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
466.00K
Change in Working Capital :
3.39M
Accounts Receivables:
22.00K
Other Working Capital:
4.09M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1154.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
23.10M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1183.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 372629.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
802.61M
1.59B
2.39B
23.23M
-
-
-
131.81M
156.66M
-
1.99B
-
-
2.27B
8.47B
6.20B
1.31M
5.93M
-
-
-
7.23M
144.80M
-
144.80M
5.74B
5.61B
21.73M
219.59M
- 68847.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
590.44M
6.20B
3.58B
150.73M
- 651886.0K
56.47M
- 7609.00K
- 324956.00K
- 44.00K
-
- 22734.00K
- 3423.00K
210.95M
184.75M
-
- 117100.00K
802.61M
919.71M
23.10M
- 1183.00K
21.92M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FBMS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.85
$41.39
$44.09
$46.97
$50.04