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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
The Children'S Place, Inc. (XNAS:PLCE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PLCE
Name:
THE CHILDREN'S PLACE, INC. (XNAS:PLCE)
Sector:
- 23288.00K
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Ms. Jane Elfers
Total Employees:
3,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 449.59% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE CHILDREN'S PLACE, INC.(PLCE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
42.18
One Month Price Target:
$42.64
Six Month Price Target :
$44.92
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.67
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.85
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.6
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.7
This week:
$32.16
This month :
$22.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
540.29M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
13.03M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.85%
-29.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.98
$53.43
$21.38
$30.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.32
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.28
$34.01
$36.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PLCE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.75%
Comparison:
PLCE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 152.46% higher than the industry
& is -23.21% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PLCE
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.50%
Monthly returns:
2.01%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 171.53% above industry average
Classification:
PLCE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.54
Statistical test of Returns:
PLCE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.22%
Weekly Volatility:
11.68%
Monthly Volatility:
23.36%
Yearly Volatility:
80.93%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.98%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.01% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.63%
Weekly VaR:
-23.77%
Monthly VaR:
-47.53%
How Much Can the price of
PLCE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-41%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.93
This translates to price declining to:
$6.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PLCE is a 235.48% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 187.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 34.62% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PLCE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.072
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.516
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.802
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.101
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.923
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.903
Beta is 1.75% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is 41.69% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
99.19%
Sustainable growth rate is 142.92% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.077
Alpha is -309.90% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 487% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PLCE
Equity cost of capital:
0.164
Equity cost of capital is 31.19% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.80%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.81%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.64%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.64%
WACC is 17.23% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$141.40
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.79
Annual revenue growth rate is -125.73% below industry average
EPS:
$11.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 30.28% higher than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.80
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 249.58% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$20.72
EBITDA per share
$21.06
Valuation Analysis Today of
PLCE
P/E Ratio:
5.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.99
P/E ratio is -49.79% lower than main peers & is -63.50% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $151.49
PLCE is -72.16% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.3
Price to sales ratio is -65.59% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.79
Price to free cash flow: 4.31
Price to free cash flow ratio is -37.58% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-299.00%
Net income growth rate is 382.58% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 1.33%
Previous Dividend: $0.56
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.56
Previous Dividend: $0.56
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.56
-
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 27/12/2019
Previous dividend record date: 16/12/2019
Previous dividend declaration date: 12/11/2019
Dividend History:
2019-12-13--$0.56
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
186.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
365.87%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
47.05%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -62.81% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
56.97
Interest coverage ratio is -74.88% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
271.11%
Annual debt growth is 2% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 37.98%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.448
Statistical significance of correlation:
PLCE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is -0.96% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.023
Kurtosis
6.518
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.158
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PLCE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
162%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.43%
Operating profit margin is 67.55% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
162%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.07%
Effective tax rate is -8.71% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
111.58%
Return on equity (ROE) is 169.54% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
14.35%
Return on assets (ROA) is 37.19% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.86
Current ratio is -50.89% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-13
Cash conversion cycle is -127.19% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.89%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
526.4K
Each employee generates 34% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
78.4K
Each employee generates 60% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
46.2K
Each employee generates 81% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 6.7K
Each employee generates -200% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
157.5K
Each employee generates -200% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PLCE
AMERICAN WOODMARK CORPORATION (XNAS:AMWD)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNI)
PLBY GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PLBY)
WW International, Inc. (XNAS:WW)
ZUMIEZ INC. (XNAS:ZUMZ)
DENNY'S CORPORATION (XNAS:DENN)
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC. (XNAS:SCVL)
BLINK CHARGING CO. (XNAS:BLNK)
THE REALREAL, INC. (XNAS:REAL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.84B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.09B
748.44M
-
-
461.47M
-
28.60M
490.06M
13.00K
4.82M
56.47M
274.37M
229.00M
161.80M
213.08M
51.29M
161.80M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
15.56M
Differed Income Tax :
8.39M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.92M
Change in Working Capital :
- 120681.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2080.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 63147.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
27.05M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 16562.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
65.38M
-
65.38M
42.62M
417.81M
50.59M
576.40M
433.01M
-
72.29M
-
37.43M
8.54M
551.27M
-
1.13B
228.15M
325.96M
6.42M
-
119.32M
673.43M
269.96M
39.26M
309.22M
-
982.66M
1.47M
563.00K
- 12930.0K
155.91M
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.58B
145.01M
1.13B
-
595.92M
530.5M
-
- 6708.00K
- 6708.00K
- 165300.00K
-
- 2374.00K
-
192.12M
24.45M
648.00K
1.83M
65.38M
63.55M
- 16562.00K
- 6726.00K
- 23288.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PLCE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.91
$93.18
$105.30
$119.00
$134.48